Sigma Signals

Week of May 28, 2024 “It’s not bragging if it’s true”, so said American author, Sara Shephard.  Nvidia can lay claim to said merit with continuing explosive sales and earnings growth as reported last week.  In fact, the heady results likely reversed a short-lived stock market decline when reported as the Standard & Poor’s 500 … Continued

Sigma Signals

Week of April 29, 2024 While there are no changes to our Signals this week, we would like to highlight the importance of, and reason for, the presence of social and cultural factors as a Signal that helps inform investment decision-making. Just this week, on campuses across the United States, protests have sprung up over … Continued

When is a Perceived Loss, an Actual Loss?

The word loss is often used to describe actual losses and sometimes used to describe, what is more likely to be a “temporary”, change in value.  For example, if you buy a lottery ticket, after the drawing, you either won or lost, and time will not change the outcome.  On the other hand, the value of … Continued

Sigma Signals

Week of August 29, 2022 Price stability is essential for a modern economy. One need only consider Germany’s Weimar Republic in 1923 and the destructive nature of that hyperinflation. Fed Chair Jay Powell was resolute in suggesting last week that the central bankers would be vigilant in taming inflation. This is a long-term strategic benefit … Continued

Sigma Signals

With a likely profitability recession looming, the valuation on the S&P 500 is now less favorable (green to yellow). China and India are building new coal fired electric plants while Germany recently announced it is restarting its plants. This could influence energy policy in the US and the rest of the globe as energy security … Continued

Smoot-Hawley Tariff

The Tariff Act of 1930, commonly known as Smoot-Hawley, was a law that implemented protectionist trade policies in the US.  Protectionism is the economic policy of restricting imports from other countries.  Proponents argued that protectionist policies would shield US producers, businesses and workers, while opponents believed that implementing protectionist policies would adversely affect consumers, and … Continued

“I’ve Got the World on a String”

And the well-known Frank Sinatra song continues, “sitting on a rainbow got the string around my finger.”  If Mr. Putin sings in the shower, this might be his favorite melody, as he watches the West dangling at the end of his string (gas pipeline). If you’re looking for a solution here, you can stop reading … Continued


The whole process of simply paying employees has become increasingly politicized with competing agendas shifting the focus away from the fundamental idea of a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work.  We have advocates for a higher minimum wage, federal, state and local versions, for a competitive wage, for a living wage and so on.  … Continued

Know-nothing Investing

Over the last several quarters we have seen an increase in market activity by individuals who seem to take pride in how much they don’t know about the stocks they are trading.  This is not investing.  Perhaps it is trading, wagering or just plain “rolling the dice.” Over the short run, this may not be … Continued

Climate, Coal and China

China is putting forth a vision of continuing economic growth in conjunction with a reduction in greenhouse gas pollution.  The plan calls for a peaking in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and net carbon neutrality before 2060.  This may be difficult.  We have previously discussed China’s dependence on coal.  (See our blog dated 2019-2-13). China’s … Continued

Momentum Investing

While there are a number of specific strategies that can be considered to be momentum investing, the simple definition can be summarized as, buying stocks that have been going up and selling/shorting stocks that have been going down on the assumption that the existing trend will continue.  It’s a little like being famous for being … Continued

Subsidies or Surcharges?

In order to accelerate demand for electric vehicles (EVs), the world’s governments have been handing out a wide range of subsidies and incentives.  But in nearly half of U.S. states, driving a battery-powered car now requires paying an additional fee. To date, 24 states have imposed special fees on EVs, usually through higher registration charges, … Continued