Week of June 16, 2025 We have long recognized the global significance of instability in the Middle East—particularly involving a major antagonist like Iran—and consistently reflect this awareness in our Signals. The war that began last week between Israel and Iran will undoubtedly have far-reaching, long-term implications for global stability and markets. Given the relative … Continued
Week of June 2, 2025 Ignore the Noise. It’s easy to get swept up in the daily drama out of D.C.—hearings, headlines, and heated takes. But while the political theater distracts, something far more consequential is unfolding: artificial intelligence is advancing at a breakneck pace. Nearly every day brings breakthroughs with real-world impact. The real … Continued
It is probably viewed as good news when you realize that the house you bought 10-15 years ago is now valued at twice what you paid for it. Before you break out the champagne, consider the down side. While the good news is the increase in value, the downside is the significant increase in occupancy … Continued
Can widespread adoption of AI lead to enough productivity gains to make shorter work weeks economically feasible? JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has suggested that future generations of employees could work a day and a half less every week thanks to AI. In America, a 40-hour, 5-day work week is generally considered to be the … Continued
The Crisis in Property and Casualty Insurance Premiums Is the insurance industry going to determine where you live and what you drive? Most of us are aware of the acceleration in residential and automobile insurance premiums. Now, the industry seems to be not only seeking to protect their profit margins, through special rates for higher … Continued
Week of August 5, 2024 Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned investors at a conference in February that it had become “…impossible to separate geopolitical risk from capital allocation.” These days, investing isn’t only about company-specific fundamentals; one must also manage potential impacts of political instability (i.e., China, Russia, Middle East). It is … Continued
Week of July 22, 2024 President Biden removed one electoral uncertainty in withdrawing his nomination as the Democratic candidate for President on Sunday, a foregone conclusion we recently posited. Now the electoral calculus focuses on his replacement – Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, or “player to be named later?” This will have enormous and obvious implications for … Continued
Several weeks ago, a reported 51 million people saw the “great debate”. The media reaction ranged from OMG to, “where’s the problem?”. This range of media response would seem to confirm our view that investors should seek a diverse exposure to information, as articulated in our blog, “The Importance of Maintaining Diverse Media Exposure“, posted … Continued
Week of May 28, 2024 “It’s not bragging if it’s true”, so said American author, Sara Shephard. Nvidia can lay claim to said merit with continuing explosive sales and earnings growth as reported last week. In fact, the heady results likely reversed a short-lived stock market decline when reported as the Standard & Poor’s 500 … Continued
Week of April 29, 2024 While there are no changes to our Signals this week, we would like to highlight the importance of, and reason for, the presence of social and cultural factors as a Signal that helps inform investment decision-making. Just this week, on campuses across the United States, protests have sprung up over … Continued
The word loss is often used to describe actual losses and sometimes used to describe, what is more likely to be a “temporary”, change in value. For example, if you buy a lottery ticket, after the drawing, you either won or lost, and time will not change the outcome. On the other hand, the value of … Continued
Week of August 29, 2022 Price stability is essential for a modern economy. One need only consider Germany’s Weimar Republic in 1923 and the destructive nature of that hyperinflation. Fed Chair Jay Powell was resolute in suggesting last week that the central bankers would be vigilant in taming inflation. This is a long-term strategic benefit … Continued
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