Week of November 6, 2023 We are moving our Monetary Policy Signal from yellow to green, following the announcement by the Fed that they will not be engineering another interest-rate increase before year end. Shortly on the heels of that announcement, the October employment data was released showing a reduction in job gains versus the … Continued

We appear to be at an energy crossroads as reliance on fossil fuels may be on the way out, presumably offset by an ascension of renewable energy.  At least that seems to be the conventional wisdom. Investors might want to take another look. All comments and suggestions are welcome. Walter J. Kirchberger, CFA

Week of October 30, 2023 In a Wall Street Journal Article from October 18th titled “Tech Leaders Say AI Will Change What It Means to Have a Job”, it is stated that, “Artificial Intelligence will likely lead to seismic changes to the workforce, eliminating many professions…” This is no different than in the early 1900’s … Continued

Week of October 23, 2023 With the presence of myriad uncertainties led by the Israeli/Hamas war and the inability of Republicans in the House of Representatives to choose a Speaker, we would have expected even more equity market weakness this past week. We can only conjecture that market participants, conditioned to resist emotional selling, may … Continued

In our blog posted May 3, 2023 we discussed the potential impact of pending California legislation that would establish a minimum wage and other workplace requirements for fast-food workers.  Recently, labor groups, primarily the S.E.I.U., and fast-food companies reached an agreement that resulted in legislation that established increases in minimum wages for fast-food workers and … Continued

Week of October 16, 2023 The troubled Middle East that seems always a boiling cauldron just had another log thrown on the fire. Israel is amassing forces to drive Hamas out of Gaza following the Hamas led massacre in Israel a week ago Saturday. Capital markets were expecting a wave of selling pressure that Monday … Continued

In the US, the term “nifty fifty” was an informal designation, in the 1960s and 1970s, for a group of roughly fifty large-cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange that were widely regarded as solid buy and hold investments.  The stocks were often described as “one-decision”, as they were viewed as extremely stable, even … Continued

Week of October 9, 2023 Our signals remain unchanged this week, although we are closely watching the situation in Israel with the recent Hamas led terrorist attacks. Clearly, the Middle East is a region of importance to the entire world, given the high concentration of petroleum reserves located in the area. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Week of October 2, 2023 The US House and Senate agreed upon a stopgap measure to keep the federal government funded for the next 1 1/2 months. This eliminated a degree of uncertainty, and with the government shutdown uncertainty removed, some of the downward pressure on equity prices will be relieved. Our Signals remain unchanged, … Continued

We are all aware of the rise in social media marketing involving endorsements by people and organizations who purport to have expert knowledge or social influence, largely based on name recognition and/or the number of followers. While there is a lack of consensus about what an influencer is, the most common characteristic is payment for … Continued

Week of September 25, 2023 Interest rates appear to be settling into a normal range – at least at the lower bound – after a generation of abnormally low rates. These higher interest rates provide more competition for common stocks. As a result, we are changing our US Treasury Signal from yellow to green and … Continued