Week of June 23, 2025 While global attention remains focused on Iran, several other important developments continue to unfold beneath the headlines. In the Senate, Republicans are still working through the details of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” Meanwhile, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine grinds on in a virtual stalemate. On a more constructive front, … Continued

Week of June 16, 2025 We have long recognized the global significance of instability in the Middle East—particularly involving a major antagonist like Iran—and consistently reflect this awareness in our Signals. The war that began last week between Israel and Iran will undoubtedly have far-reaching, long-term implications for global stability and markets. Given the relative … Continued

Two short tales of the sea, some 400 years apart, that suggest that haste and a failure to accept expert advice can have consequences. A few weeks ago, Kim Jong Un watched as a new 5000-ton destroyer toppled during a “risky” side launch.  Naval experts attribute the failure to a combination of inexperience, a rushed … Continued

Week of June 9, 2025 Noted in an article from the Wall St Journal titled Export Controls to Take Center Stage at U.S.-China Trade Talks, “The trade war between Washington and Beijing has in recent weeks veered away from tariffs, focusing instead on each country’s restrictions on material or products the other side desperately needs.” These … Continued

Pressure on consumer finances is beginning to impact the fast-food sector, with most major chains, including Chipotle, Domino’s, Starbucks, Pizza Hut, KFC and McDonald’s, seeing sales cool and guidance tempered.  On the demand side, low-income customers, in particular, pulled back on their spending, but so did middle-income households.  Higher income households appear to be sustaining … Continued

Week of June 2, 2025 Ignore the Noise.  It’s easy to get swept up in the daily drama out of D.C.—hearings, headlines, and heated takes. But while the political theater distracts, something far more consequential is unfolding: artificial intelligence is advancing at a breakneck pace. Nearly every day brings breakthroughs with real-world impact. The real … Continued

The answer to that question depends, to a significant degree, on geography, politics and economics.  In the US, until recently, more than 50% of electricity generation was from coal.  Today, coal utilization for electricity generation is down to approximately 15%, and cleaner, lower cost natural gas has substantially replaced coal as the primary fuel for … Continued

Week of May 26, 2025 “Mr. Trump wants European nations to nix their Value-Added Tax system, a key consumption tax – which negotiators say is not on the table” notes the New York Times (Europe’s been Negotiating by the Book, but Trump’s Tearing It Up, NYT, May 24, 2025).  We alluded to the role of … Continued

Week of May 19, 2025 Next on the agenda in Washington, as the noise surrounding the Trump tariff proposals begins to fade, are federal budget negotiations. Currently, our fiscal policy Signal is yellow, indicating a moderate level of concern (Moody’s just downgraded US debt). Any resolution that results in a fiscal surplus and a reduction … Continued

This blog could also be titled, “You Can Lead a Horse to Water But You Can’t Make Him Drink.” Recently, the House voted to overturn, with some Democratic support, the EV mandate the Biden Administration let California impose on the rest of America. The California mandate is ludicrously impossible to meet.  It requires 43% of … Continued

Week of May 12, 2025 Of the five top-performing common stocks in the S&P 500 from 1990 to 1999 (that are still in business today)—Cisco Systems, Jack Henry & Associates, Qualcomm, Best Buy, and Microsoft— not one delivered extraordinary, sustained performance over the following decade. This prompts reflection on the fate of today’s top performers … Continued

Will California be able to rebuild?  The unintended consequences of blanket opposition to development. In our blog, “No One Wants to Pay“, posted April 9, 2025, we discussed California’s major fire financial losses and suggested that it would be difficult to finance a recovery.  Money is not the only problem.  The California Environmental Quality Act, … Continued