Week of January 5, 2026 Recent U.S. military action targeting Venezuelan narco-terrorists may carry meaningful positive long-term implications. Our assessment of global risk has consistently centered on China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as the primary sources of geopolitical instability. In the near term, further escalation by these regimes appears less likely following this demonstration … Continued

Week of December 29, 2025 When two premier U.S. news outlets present the same fact with radically different prominence, investors are not merely informed—they are steered. Last week, The Wall Street Journal led its mobile edition with strong third-quarter U.S. GDP growth, while The New York Times relegated the same story far down its feed. … Continued

Week of December 22, 2025 A recent Wall Street Journal article titled What Christmas Tree Sales Tell Us About Holiday Spending suggests that there is a positive correlation between Christmas tree sales and overall consumer spending.  “This year, [Christmas tree sales] aren’t very good, running just 3% above last year’s levels… Last year, sales rose 7%.” … Continued

Week of December 15, 2025 In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve last week lowered short-term interest rates. Broadly speaking, major equity indexes were little changed, though market leadership rotated out of leading technology shares and into prior under performers. Our Signals remained unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Week of December 8, 2025 Notably, copper and silver both reached all-time price highs last week. However, lumber and crude oil did not participate in the rally, suggesting that this is not a broad-based commodity surge. Given the recent crash-like behavior in certain cryptocurrencies, the moves may reflect a rotation of speculative activity rather than … Continued

On March 20, 2024, we posted a blog “Homeownership Versus Renting”, which addressed the relative merits of owning versus renting.  Traditionally, owning a home has been a way for US households to build wealth.  In a low interest rate environment, many advisors believed that buying as much house as you could finance was a reasonable … Continued

Week of December 1, 2025 After the brief pullback that pushed down the prices of major domestic technology companies a couple of weeks ago, most shares have recovered over the past week. More importantly, the market rally is broadening: sectors beyond technology—such as healthcare—are moving higher, and smaller companies are also showing renewed strength. This … Continued

I recently went to San Francisco to visit my grandson and, on several occasions, we used Waymo or Uber transportation services.  In all instances, the performance of both the driver (Uber) and non-driver (Waymo) was flawless.  Accessing these services generally requires some cell phone dexterity.  With Waymo, you know what the vehicle will be, but … Continued

Week of November 24, 2025 Bitcoin—the reigning king of crypto—fell back toward its April 2025 lows last week, dropping more than a third in price since the highs reached in October. We used the term “price” versus “value” deliberately. We continue to view Bitcoin primarily as a vehicle for speculation. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob … Continued

Week of November 17, 2025 We believe several European countries are recalibrating parts of their policy agendas as they balance decarbonization goals with voter concerns about inflation, employment, and energy affordability. These adjustments reflect a broader recognition that durable economic growth is needed to maintain social and political stability. Japan continues to advance structural reforms, … Continued

There are many bad ideas, but today’s blog looks at proposals by several States to consider the really bad idea of capping premium increases for personal lines of insurance. There seems to be a substantial consensus that there is a crisis when it comes to the cost of home and auto insurance, but a dearth … Continued