Week of April 7, 2025
With the severe equity market sell off last week, we have changed our Domestic Equity Investments Signal from yellow to green. We think that the markets have misinterpreted the Trump tariffs as final. Instead of tariff wars, we’re likely to have a reconciliation and a general reduction in global tariff rates (as Israel, Vietnam, and Great Britain have all initiated reductions). Trump’s tariffs are expected to be substantially less as countries come to the negotiating table bringing reduced tariffs of their own. This gambit will be “as the pieces fall” and international equity returns may be hindered until all players have made their final offers.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
