Week of November 18, 2024 The winter holiday season is near, and that means Americans are gearing up to spend. A recent Gallup Poll suggests that Americans on average will spend over $1,000 on gifts this holiday season, a modest increase from last year. This bodes well for economic growth, as consumer spending makes up … Continued

Productivity is a measure of performance that compares the output of a product with the input, or resources required to produce it.  Economists see productivity as the key source of economic growth.  A country’s ability to improve its standard of living depends on its ability to raise its output per worker.  This does not mean … Continued

Week of November 11, 2024 Explosive rallies in global equity markets greeted the end of the US presidential election cycle last week. They were pronounced – either because of, or in spite of, the Republican sweep. Time will tell. Split government seems historically to have resulted in better policy. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, … Continued

According to Wikipedia, smoke and mirrors is a classic technique in magical illusions that make an entity appear to hover in empty space.  More recently the phrase has entered common English use to refer to any proposal that, when examined closely, proves to be an illusion. Investors should be cautious when approached with mind blowing … Continued

Week of November 4, 2024 On November 3, early Sunday morning, the top two queries on Google search were “How do I vote” and “What time does the time change.”  Metaphorically, these two seem oddly related.  It leaves one pondering.  No change to our Signals. Bob Bilkie, CFA

The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from the end of 1999 to the end of 2009, when the S&P 500 generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period.  This was only the second time the market, as measured by the S&P 500, has had a negative return over … Continued

Week of October 28, 2024 After what seemed an indeterminate pause in the “what’s next in the Middle East”, Israel bombed selected military sites in Iran on October 26 as retaliation for similar strikes by Iran into Israel. The initial reports suggest this was a largely symbolic gesture. After what seemed an indeterminate continuation of meritless debate … Continued

Week of October 21, 2024 The US Department of Commerce will provide an estimate of Q3 2024 GDP growth on October 30. We expect a continuation of the low single digit growth numbers posted over the last four quarters. Inflation has also continued to moderate while the unemployment rate has held relatively steady. With no … Continued

At Sigma, we frequently share articles and white papers amongst the staff that we believe will enhance colleagues understanding of capital markets.  In that regard, the Wall Street Journal published an editorial on October 10, 2024 titled, “China Rides a ‘Stimulus’ Rollercoaster.”  Our esteemed colleague, Wenma Gorman CFA CFP® , wrote a powerful, cogent and … Continued

Week of October 14, 2024 Intelligence uncovered by the Israelis appears to provide credible evidence that activities by the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah have been directed and funded out of Iran, something that has long been suspected, but lacked said evidence. Houthi rebels in Yemen have apparently similarly been funded by Iran. Changed leadership … Continued

When labor and management, from both the private and public sectors, meet to discuss contract terms, it’s just about them. The empty chair, symbolically, is where the customer/tax payer should be sitting, as that’s who is paying the bills.  Historically, labor and management have eventually come to terms, and, after all the wrangling is done, … Continued

Week of October 7, 2024 We are less than a month out from the US Presidential election on November 5th. Investors continue to parse through potential impacts of election outcomes as detailed policy proposals by each party become more clear. China’s broad policy reform aimed at stimulating economic conditions led to the Shanghai Composite Index … Continued