Sigma Signals

Week of October 17, 2022 When will volatility in capital markets end? Likely, not soon. Often, volatility begets more volatility as the faint of heart ultimately succumb to the anxiety provocations. Eventually, greed replaces fear as the dominant emotion and a bull market is given birth. For long term investors, this is standard operating procedure. … Continued

Critical Mass

According to Investopedia, critical mass is the point at which a growing company becomes self-sustaining and no longer needs additional investment to remain economically viable.  The term critical mass is borrowed from nuclear physics, where it refers to the smallest mass that can sustain a nuclear reaction at a constant level. In the world of … Continued

Sigma Signals

Week of October 10, 2022 In the last century, we have seen numerous events that create global uncertainty. Most recently, Russia has shifted their tactical strategy to destroy critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, signaling desperation for Russia and a long, drawn out conflict for Ukrainians. At home in the US, the Federal Reserve indicated a long, … Continued

Beauty is Only Skin Deep

This may best describe China’s recent certification of the domestically produced C919 jet, intended to eventually compete with Boeing and Airbus families of single aisle commercial jets. The key word for investors in the foregoing is “eventually.” This type of certification allows the airplane to be delivered to Chinese customers for domestic flights.  A broader … Continued

Sigma Signals

Week of October 3, 2022 No change in Signals this week. From The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2022, “After Punishing Year for Stocks, Investors Aren’t Betting on Post Mid-Term Rally.” This could be a mistake. From the article, “The S&P 500 has moved higher in the one-year period following every midterm election since 1942, … Continued

I’ve Seen This Before

After nearly 65 years of employment in the investment community, I have seen, and survived, almost everything the market can throw at you.  While it is true that markets are prone to wide fluctuations, they remain, in effect, a proxy for the long term economic success of the United States. Over the nearly 100 years … Continued

Sigma Signals

Week of September 26, 2022 Bear markets are designed to generate maximum emotional discomfort. At the moment of complete despair is the capitulation that results in the panicked sale of investments. With a cyclical bear market in equities now largely confirmed, future return expectations have improved, and as such, additional investment is warranted. Our equity … Continued

Excess Capacity

Excess capacity is a condition that occurs when demand for a product is less than a business or industry could theoretically supply.  While this term is typically used in manufacturing, excess capacity can be applicable in a wide range of activities.  It may seem strange to be writing about excess capacity when all the news … Continued

Sigma Signals

Week of September 19, 2022 The more things change, the more they stay the same, or so it appears after surveying the financial and economic landscape over the last week. From a broad view, stocks largely declined about 5% and interest rates increased a few basis points. Bob Bilkie, CFA

A Reprieve For Nuclear?

The US, France, Germany and several other countries are scrambling to find the money and political will to extend the life of ageing nuclear reactors.  This reflects a growing consensus that the global economy needs more megawatts now.  We previously discussed this issue in our blog of March 25, 2022, ”Coal Versus Climate, Now Versus … Continued

Sigma Signals

Week of September 12, 2022 Queen Elizabeth II had many of the very same characteristics that define successful investors, most notably temperance and discipline. She maintained a consistent approach throughout her tenure as Queen. No change to our signals this week. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Risk and OPM

Managing other people’s money (OPM) should reflect a level of responsibility that far exceeds the degree of risk an advisor may find acceptable for personal funds. Recent media reports suggest that some public pension funds, that manage public workers’ retirement savings, have been committing funds to cryptocurrency. Apparently this has not gone well. The management … Continued