Week of January 27, 2025 From ChatGPT: “When calculating equity investment performance during each presidential term, the inauguration date is typically used. This is because the inauguration marks the official start of the presidential term and the point at which they assume the powers and responsibilities of the office.” We would argue with this “conventional … Continued

Week of January 20, 2025 Commentary The ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel is a positive step in the short term, though violations remain a possibility. The past couple of weeks have been relatively stable from a news cycle perspective. By the time this is published, a new president will have been inaugurated. The early … Continued

Week of January 13, 2025 A New York Times article from January 9th reads with the headline; Iran Was ‘Defeated Very Badly’ in Syria, a Top General Admits. The article states that General Esbati revealed in a speech in Tehran, “I don’t consider losing Syria something to be proud of…We were defeated… we took a very big blow … Continued

This is the title of a January 1, 2025 commentary in The Wall Street Journal, in which the author summarizes the significant cost difference between green energy and fossil fuel generated power. On January 30, 2023, Sigma posted a blog titled “It’s Going to Take a Lot of Green to go Green.”  As noted at … Continued

Week of January 6, 2025 “It is possible to have too much of a good thing” is a quote traced back to the Greek storyteller, Aesop. A nearly universal idiom that applies to everyday things; food, water, and, yes, the stock market. Calendar year total returns for the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024 were … Continued

Week of December 30, 2024 In an internal communication about equity market conditions, Sigma’s Director of Research, David Drogheo CFA, noted that “… some articles I have been reading lately have indicated that even if we are in a bubble, it may still have a way to go, as expensive stocks can get even more expensive. For … Continued

Week of December 23, 2024 A client asked why Trump wanted an increase in the US debt limit as part of the DC shutdown avoidance scheme. The rumblings in the Capital suggest DOGE will substantially reduce government spending but, as part of that process, employment buyouts are likely. This will temporarily INCREASE government spending. If … Continued

Week of December 16, 2024 Niall Ferguson, a British historian and public intellectual renowned for his work on economic history, geopolitics, and global finance, recently published a Substack piece titled “The Vibe Shift Goes Global”. With the byline, “At home, Yale Law School and DEI committees are out. Abroad, strength and escalation are in,” Ferguson … Continued

Proof of concept is generally associated with product development and is used to demonstrate the feasibility or viability of an idea by collecting evidence of its practical or business potential.  It might also be a useful discipline for investors as companies pursue new, and largely untested products and services.  For example, the potential for generative … Continued

Week of December 9, 2024 We changed our Middle East signal from red to yellow last week and less than one week later, the Syrian government, led by the Assad family for five decades, fell. If we had not changed the Signal last week, this week we surely would have. Syria was kept afloat the … Continued

The Tariff Act of 1930 was a law that implemented protectionist trade policies in the United States.  The Act prompted retaliatory tariffs by many other countries.  It is important to note that the consensus view among economists is that the Act did not cause the Great Depression, but worsened it. Investors should note that tariffs … Continued

Week of December 2, 2024 Renewed “maximum pressure” is the strategy that Iran expects the Trump Administration to employ against its regime. To avoid “maximum pressure”, Iran pushed a depleted Hezbollah to negotiate a cease-fire deal with Israel and then Iran met with various European officials in Geneva to discuss their nuclear program, amongst other … Continued