This quotation is attributed to Gordon Bethune, who, at the time, was CEO of Continental Airlines.  Investors should take note.  No matter how well run you believe the companies in your portfolio may be, it is important to recognize that the actions of competitors are material. It is probable that Mr. Bethune was thinking about … Continued

Week of October 31, 2022 The time has drawn to a close for an October political surprise. Current polls suggest a lean to the right in the House of Representatives and either a status quo or Republican takeover of the Senate. Should that occur, no policy changes could be expected as the president has the … Continued

No, not me, but Peter Lynch, who, in a conversation with Bloomberg News, as reported by the Los Angeles Times, when pressed on the record of active vs. passive management, said, “I don’t keep score, I’ve got 10 grandchildren…That’s what I keep score on.” For those too young to remember, Peter Lynch, now 78, was … Continued

Week of October 24, 2022 There was a great deal of market “noise” this week with equity prices bouncing off recent lows, but no definitive change in any Signals. The plenum in China yielded no surprises as Xi Jinping muscled in another term. Putin is struggling with Ukraine, the Ayatollah is on the ropes in … Continued

Week of October 17, 2022 When will volatility in capital markets end? Likely, not soon. Often, volatility begets more volatility as the faint of heart ultimately succumb to the anxiety provocations. Eventually, greed replaces fear as the dominant emotion and a bull market is given birth. For long term investors, this is standard operating procedure. … Continued

According to Investopedia, critical mass is the point at which a growing company becomes self-sustaining and no longer needs additional investment to remain economically viable.  The term critical mass is borrowed from nuclear physics, where it refers to the smallest mass that can sustain a nuclear reaction at a constant level. In the world of … Continued

Week of October 10, 2022 In the last century, we have seen numerous events that create global uncertainty. Most recently, Russia has shifted their tactical strategy to destroy critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, signaling desperation for Russia and a long, drawn out conflict for Ukrainians. At home in the US, the Federal Reserve indicated a long, … Continued

Week of October 3, 2022 No change in Signals this week. From The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2022, “After Punishing Year for Stocks, Investors Aren’t Betting on Post Mid-Term Rally.” This could be a mistake. From the article, “The S&P 500 has moved higher in the one-year period following every midterm election since 1942, … Continued

After nearly 65 years of employment in the investment community, I have seen, and survived, almost everything the market can throw at you.  While it is true that markets are prone to wide fluctuations, they remain, in effect, a proxy for the long term economic success of the United States. Over the nearly 100 years … Continued

Week of September 26, 2022 Bear markets are designed to generate maximum emotional discomfort. At the moment of complete despair is the capitulation that results in the panicked sale of investments. With a cyclical bear market in equities now largely confirmed, future return expectations have improved, and as such, additional investment is warranted. Our equity … Continued

Excess capacity is a condition that occurs when demand for a product is less than a business or industry could theoretically supply.  While this term is typically used in manufacturing, excess capacity can be applicable in a wide range of activities.  It may seem strange to be writing about excess capacity when all the news … Continued

Week of September 19, 2022 The more things change, the more they stay the same, or so it appears after surveying the financial and economic landscape over the last week. From a broad view, stocks largely declined about 5% and interest rates increased a few basis points. Bob Bilkie, CFA