Week of May 4, 2026 Major U.S. equity indexes pushed to new highs last week, supported by broadly strong corporate earnings that again exceeded expectations.  While results confirmed underlying economic resilience, forward guidance struck a more cautious tone as management teams pointed to uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and its potential impact on energy prices … Continued

The Jones Act is part of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920.  It deals with coastwise trade and requires that all goods and passengers transported by water between US ports be carried on vessels that are built in the US, owned by US citizens, and crewed by US citizens.  As a result, natural gas cannot … Continued

Week of April 27, 2026 The capital markets—particularly the S&P 500—suggest that the current Iran conflict is not being viewed as a major risk, as evidenced by the new highs reached on Friday. The United States’ principal adversaries, Russia and China, have thus far acted in a relatively restrained manner. More broadly, Europe appears increasingly … Continued

Week of April 20, 2026 At present, oil prices are being driven by Iranian actions, and equity markets are reacting in turn to moves in oil. That dynamic continues to create a volatile back-and-forth in both markets. Given the fragile state of Iran’s economy and the underlying discontent within its population, the longer-term direction appears … Continued

The “Guns or Butter” model is a simple economics concept that describes the tradeoff governments face in spending on national defense or on domestic programs.  The model is meant to highlight the spending constraints faced by governments – they must choose between the two.  For several decades, Europe has chosen butter, relying on America to … Continued

Week of April 13, 2026 The United States—and much of the free world—has driven the past century’s most significant innovation, particularly in technology and biotech, reflecting the strength of open societies. These advances have fueled economic growth and helped dramatically reduce global poverty, as documented by the World Bank. Economic strength underpins military strength—when used … Continued

Today, investors are feeling uneasy about the economy, and some believe that the future looks worse.  It is easy to blame unfair trade practices, AI, and efforts by foreign countries to take advantage of the American consumer.  The easy political responses often seem to be directed toward more regulation, including antitrust, industrial and trade policies.  … Continued

Week of April 6, 2026 While attention is focused on Iran, it’s worth noting that U.S. employment data for March 2026 came in relatively strong, and the broader economy continues to show steady progress. History reminds us that even prolonged conflicts eventually come to an end. When this one does, attention is likely to shift … Continued

Over the last decade we have posted numerous blogs relating to continuing interest in some kind of universal basic income (UBI).  In recent years, more than 150 UBI pilot programs have yielded mixed results.  Now come many leading Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who have promoted schemes to address concerns that AI will displace human workers.  These … Continued

Week of March 30, 2026 While many regional actors quietly support weakening Iran’s military capabilities, an active conflict raises near-term instability across the Middle East. Iran is likely to continue to respond more virulently through proxy groups and asymmetric attacks, increasing the risk of broader regional disruption and energy market volatility. Although the long-term balance … Continued

Imports, as a percentage of the region’s energy needs, have risen from approximately 50% in 1990 to 58-60% currently. During the same period, the costs and risks of importing energy have risen significantly. According to the European Commission’s latest assessment of the region’s competitiveness, businesses in Europe pay twice as much for electricity as they … Continued

Week of March 23, 2026 This week’s Signals maintain a cautious yet balanced outlook. Global equity prices have eased amid the war, but declines remain measured. A material reduction in Iranian military capabilities would support a positive longer-term outlook. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA