A tariff is a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supernational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer but eventually affects the price paid by the consumer. A value-added tax (VAT) is a consumption tax that is levied at each stage of a product’s production and distribution and … Continued

Week of September 8, 2025 The thirty-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped by a quarter of a percentage point last week, with mortgage rates following a similar decline. Notably, this occurred without any intervention from the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell was spared from action. As we have maintained for over three decades, the Fed … Continued

Add to that, too much misinformation, either deliberate or as a result of an agenda or a sloppy job of research.  The public is being besieged by a constant flow of verbiage from a wide range of sources, including such diverse entities as historical media and influencers. All of this places investors in a difficult … Continued

Week of September 1, 2025 There’s an old saying: “Don’t just do something—stand there!” With equity markets brushing new highs in recent days, many are asking whether common stocks are overvalued. Over the long term, however, equity markets have proven highly efficient at forecasting future profitability. While short-term price corrections are to be expected, we … Continued

We have previously discussed California legislative efforts to increase the minimum wage for fast-food workers.  Note blogs posted May 3, 2023 and October 18, 2023.  Now the Los Angeles City Council has voted to mandate minimum wage increases for workers in hotels, with more than 60 rooms, to $30.00 per hour by 2028.  Not to … Continued

Week of August 25, 2025 The Trump administration has announced plans to take a 10% stake in Intel. Perhaps, then, Nvidia should begin preparing its negotiation strategy with the U.S. government now, while it is still in a position of strength—so that when its turn inevitably comes, it can secure “better” terms than Intel. The … Continued

Week of August 18, 2025 In many ways, our Sigma Signals project can be viewed as a distant cousin of Nate Silver’s 2012 book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t. Last week provided a textbook case of what we would classify as noise: plenty of headlines but little meaningful … Continued

In our blog “Don’t Confuse Brains With a Bull Market” posted July 16, 2025, we noted that there has been a considerable increase in the number of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet.  The significance of these purchases was recently summarized by QUARTZ with a list of the 10 largest publicly traded companies that … Continued

Week of August 11, 2025 Peace talks — including a planned visit by Putin to meet with President Trump in Alaska — and the completion of a trade and tariff agreement with South Korea were among the key developments of the past week. Both events likely had a positive influence on capital markets. Our Signals … Continued

Wikipedia defines Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the monetary measure of the market value of all the goods and services from a nation in a given year.  It should be noted that this is not a precise statistic, but does provide a useful measure of a country’s economic health. In round numbers, US GDP for … Continued

Week of August 4, 2025 President Trump’s response to Russia’s saber-rattling in Ukraine (nuclear threat?), along with recent U.S. strikes in Iran, reflects a pattern of assertive action aimed at reducing global conflict. While controversial, this approach appears intended to deter aggression and stabilize international relations. From a financial markets perspective, if these efforts succeed … Continued

With the recent resurgence of so-called meme stocks, it might be a good time to understand the underlying premise supporting interest in these stocks.  Specifically, it is the Bigger Fool Theory, which is based on the idea that a bigger fool than me will take these shares off my hands at a higher price than … Continued