This phrase is generally believed to have originated in the US in the early part of the 20th century.  It is a manifestation of the dilemma of being in the position where one is faced with two equally unwelcome options. One of today’s pressing problems is the increasing gap between the cost of government services … Continued

Week of March 9, 2026 The assassination of Ali Khamenei has created a power vacuum inside Iran’s ruling structure and intensified competition among clerical authorities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and opposition forces. Three outcomes appear plausible. Fragmentation: Central authority weakens and Iran splinters into competing factions, disrupting energy flows. Managed disorder: Internal factions compete, but the … Continued

Week of March 2, 2026 A realignment of the Middle East power structure appears imminent following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend. A known, high-risk geopolitical threat has given way to uncertainty about what comes next. Depending on how events unfold, geopolitical risk could ultimately be reduced on a more permanent … Continued

Most of us probably believe that in many instances, regulatory overload has gotten out of hand. Now comes Paul S. Atkins, Chairman of the US SEC, proposing to implement simpler disclosure rules. Investors should watch, and be prepared to applaud, if Mr. Atkins actually succeeds in promulgating revised regulations that are rooted in financial materiality … Continued

Week of February 23, 2026 Last week in The Wall Street Journal, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson argued that Donald Trump was right to push Europe to boost defense spending. For investors, the key is allocation: spending on domestic defense and tech firms, rather than imports, could create multi-year industrial and revenue tailwinds for European … Continued

Week of February 16, 2026 Amid a steady stream of global distractions — U.S. warships repositioning toward Iran, economic instability in Cuba, political uncertainty in the U.K., and the recent sharp collapse in cryptocurrencies that has called into question some long-held assumptions about their role as bona fide currencies — artificial intelligence continues its quiet … Continued

Week of February 9, 2026 Last week’s market scoreboard: silver struggled, Bitcoin fell, and U.S. equities (excluding software names) performed well. Volatility was front and center, but the broader takeaway remains clear: long-term investing, paired with appropriate guardrails, is far more likely to produce successful outcomes, while speculation often leads to financial heartache. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob … Continued

Investopedia defines diversification as a risk management strategy that creates a mix of various investments within a portfolio. A diversified portfolio contains distinct asset types and investment vehicles in an attempt to limit exposure to any single asset or risk. This definition is well-known and adopted by most investor advisors. Information is key to making decisions and … Continued

Week of February 2, 2026 In our December 8, 2025 Sigma Signals, we noted the sharp rise in silver prices and suggested that a collapse was likely, comparing the setup to the “recent crash-like behavior in certain cryptocurrencies.” Silver prices plunged 30% from recent highs last Friday, underscoring the risk of speculation and the difficulty … Continued

This is the lead line in the 1989 sports fantasy drama film, “Field of Dreams”. The premise of the film is that if the farmer who owns the land builds a baseball field in his cornfield, the ghosts of baseball legends will come and play. Now we have the White House demanding that manufacturers step … Continued

Week of January 26, 2026 U.S. GDP growth in the second half of 2025 was significantly stronger than anticipated. For much of the year, policy uncertainty dominated the narrative, leading many economists to expect economic weakness. As ever, forecasting is imperfect, and short-term noise can obscure longer-term trends. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Week of January 19, 2026 President Trump continues to weigh how far the United States is willing to go to intervene in Iran. The Ayatollah’s partial retreat from the use of force against protestors has, for now, helped preserve the regime. As Niall Ferguson notes in The Free Press, meaningful regime change would likely require … Continued