Week of June 22, 2026 Our Monetary Policy Signal remains green. Inflation has proven more persistent than expected, reducing the need for additional Federal Reserve stimulus. New Fed Chair Warsh, a committed monetarist, reinforced this outlook during his first meeting, signaling that policy decisions will be driven by economic data rather than market or political … Continued

Week of June 15, 2026 Two issues currently confront the capital markets. In the near term, investors remain focused on the peace agreement with Iran. Will Iran honor the agreement to the satisfaction of the opposing parties to the agreement?  Any break from the region’s historical pattern of instability would represent a meaningful step toward … Continued

Wikipedia defines alarmism as the excessive or exaggerated alarm of a real or imagined threat.  Alarmists are generally pushing an agenda and attempting to excite fears or give warnings of great danger in a manner that is amplified, overemphasized, or unwarranted. This is not a new phenomenon.  Thousands of years ago, diverse cultures were led … Continued

Week of June 8, 2026 S&P Global confirmed that they are not waiving their GAAP profitability and “seasoning” requirements for inclusion into the widely followed S&P 500 index. This decision comes in the days leading up to what is slated to be the largest IPO in history, SpaceX. The inclusion requirements ensure that passive index … Continued

If you think you are a long-term investor, you need to have a time horizon measured in years, not days.  Some “investors” think that overnight is long term.  If you are reading this blog, that is probably not you.  The successful long-term investor believes that, over time, the global economy will continue to grow, providing … Continued

Week of June 1, 2026 Markets remain sensitive to U.S.-Iran negotiations, but the risk of prolonged disruption is easing. The United States retains significant economic and geopolitical resilience.  Speculation has increased in parts of the domestic equity market, particularly technology and semiconductor stocks.  Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure has pushed valuations to … Continued

In a recent client conversation, we were discussing how dramatically the various sector weightings in the S&P 500 change over time.  As an example, the Technology Sector currently represents about 35% of the index compared with about 18% fifteen years ago.  Going back to the 80’s energy, basic materials, healthcare, and industrials were among the … Continued

Water is essential to human life and has a long history of shortages and strife.  Water rights in the American West have always been controversial, giving rise to a quote attributed to Mark Twain, “whiskey’s for drinking, water’s for fighting.” One of the most common and successful solutions to water shortages is desalination. On January … Continued

Week of May 25, 2026 We have changed our U.S. Interest Rate Signal to yellow, reflecting the arrival of the “new sheriff in town.” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a monetarist in the mold of Paul Volcker, is likely to tolerate somewhat higher interest rates as he works to anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the ongoing … Continued

Week of May 18, 2026 Recent geopolitical developments appear to have modestly improved the global investment backdrop.  Market sentiment has strengthened following indications of constructive dialogue between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, alongside renewed signals from President Putin suggesting interest in ending the Ukraine conflict.  Equity markets have continued to firm, with investors likely … Continued

There may be an increasing awareness that regulation has gotten out of hand and may be causing more problems than it solves.  There are plenty of regulatory horror stories, and everyone has their favorite.   However, the real damage comes from the accumulated  harm of the enormous number of projects never built, such as the homes … Continued

Week of May 11, 2026 A Warsh/Friedman-style Fed reinforces our Interest Rate and Monetary Policy Signals, which are currently green. A disciplined, minimalist central bank focused on monetary stability, restrained intervention, and market-driven capital allocation should support reduced long-term policy uncertainty, productive investment, improved market efficiency, price stability, and stronger sustainable real output growth over … Continued