Margaret Thatcher has been widely quoted for saying, “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.”  Now we have a real-time test of the validity of that statement as France and Britain face the consequences of an unsustainable level of social spending. Britain is dealing with an explosive increase … Continued

Week of October 26, 2026 Three weeks ago, we moved our U.S. Treasury rate signal from yellow to green as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.3%, well above its trend over the past two years. With yields subsequently retreating to approximately 5.0%, we are returning the signal to yellow. The retracement reduces the magnitude … Continued

Week of October 19, 2026 The past week proved challenging for technology companies tied to artificial intelligence and data-center infrastructure.  We view the pullback as a potentially typical market correction rather than evidence of a more fundamental breakdown.  While speculative excesses are evident, the current environment does not yet resemble the conditions that preceded lasting … Continued

According to Wikipedia, Europe is divided into about 50 sovereign states, of which Russia is the largest and most populous.  However, most investors think of Europe as a participant in several unions and organizations that have some similar and some disparate objectives.  Perhaps the most significant of these is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), … Continued

Week of October 12, 2026 Is the recent weakness in French sovereign bonds a “canary in the coal mine” for U.S. Treasury securities?  French bond prices have fallen as investors grow increasingly concerned about the country’s fiscal deficit.  U.S. policymakers would be wise to take notice.  Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

“The Millionaire Next Door” is a 1996 book that is a compilation of research done by the two authors in the profiles of American millionaires.  They found that millionaires are disproportionally clustered in middle-class and blue-collar neighborhoods and not in more affluent or white-collar communities. Most of the millionaire households researched by the authors did … Continued

Week of October 5, 2026 Since 1950, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has averaged approximately 5.4%.  Today, the yield is 5.3%, compared with a recent low of just 1.3% at the end of 2021.  With interest rates now near their long-term historical average, we believe the risk/reward characteristics of intermediate Treasury securities have become more … Continued

For the first time, people 65 and over, outnumber those age 5 and under.  It is important to note that this data applies to the world as a whole.  There are sharp differences between individual countries.  For instance, Chinese and American birth rates are below replacement, while some other countries have very high birth rates … Continued

Week of September 28, 2026 Our Signals remain unchanged.  However, as we have noted recently, the investing environment remains one of unstable equilibrium.  The world is waiting for answers to several important questions: Will the US or Iran blink? Will an aggressive Fed succeed in containing inflation? Will the US and China restore normal trade … Continued

Week of September 21, 2026 We recently moved our Monetary Policy Signal to green in anticipation of a more “hawkish” Fed willing to fight inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Warsh did not disappoint, raising the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point this past week. Capital markets initially sold off but began to recover the … Continued

“The Goose that Laid the Golden Eggs” is one of Aesop’s most famous fables and the origin of the English idiom “killing the goose that lays the golden eggs” – meaning to destroy a reliable source of wealth through greed or impatience. There are many versions of the fable, but the gist of the story … Continued

Week of September 14, 2026 A great deal of “ink” has been spilled by the press over the past week or two regarding the safety of AI models given rapid advancements in the technology and recent cyber incidents. President Trump has an upcoming meeting scheduled with President Xi of China, and this is likely to … Continued