For the first time, people 65 and over, outnumber those age 5 and under.  It is important to note that this data applies to the world as a whole.  There are sharp differences between individual countries.  For instance, Chinese and American birth rates are below replacement, while some other countries have very high birth rates … Continued

Week of September 28, 2026 Our Signals remain unchanged.  However, as we have noted recently, the investing environment remains one of unstable equilibrium.  The world is waiting for answers to several important questions: Will the US or Iran blink? Will an aggressive Fed succeed in containing inflation? Will the US and China restore normal trade … Continued

Week of September 21, 2026 We recently moved our Monetary Policy Signal to green in anticipation of a more “hawkish” Fed willing to fight inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Warsh did not disappoint, raising the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point this past week. Capital markets initially sold off but began to recover the … Continued

“The Goose that Laid the Golden Eggs” is one of Aesop’s most famous fables and the origin of the English idiom “killing the goose that lays the golden eggs” – meaning to destroy a reliable source of wealth through greed or impatience. There are many versions of the fable, but the gist of the story … Continued

Week of September 14, 2026 A great deal of “ink” has been spilled by the press over the past week or two regarding the safety of AI models given rapid advancements in the technology and recent cyber incidents. President Trump has an upcoming meeting scheduled with President Xi of China, and this is likely to … Continued

It is probably inevitable that the sorry state of the country’s financial condition will give rise to calls for a Value Added Tax (VAT).  A VAT is a general consumption tax that is collected incrementally on the value added at each stage of production. VATs are very popular with politicians as they are semi-hidden, easy … Continued

Week of September 7, 2026 The US military is orchestrating an economic death watch with the Iranians as they choke off exports and imports. In a similar fashion, Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is playing the waiting game with US inflation pressures as the specter of an interest rate hike looms. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Western water typically refers to water resources and rights in the Western US, where water management is influenced by the principles of prior appropriation and beneficial use.  This system allocates water based on the timing and purpose of its use, reflecting the region’s unique legal and environmental context. This is not working.  Years of overconsumption … Continued

Week of August 31, 2026 The U.S. is arranging for Venezuelan oil reserves to reach global markets just as Iran remains effectively blockaded from exporting its oil. The combination is significant: the rest of the world gains access to additional supply while Iran is increasingly isolated from the commodity on which its economy depends. This … Continued

According to Wikipedia, “the devil is the details”, is an idiom alluding to a catch or mysterious element hidden in the details; it indicates that something may seem simple, but in fact the details are complicated and likely to cause problems. With the mid-terms in all the news and the presidential election rapidly approaching, it … Continued

Week of August 24, 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s strategy of issuing more short-term Treasury bills while buying longer-term bonds may provide some temporary downward pressure on long-term rates, but we believe its lasting impact will be limited.  The most powerful way to lower interest rates is to reduce the federal deficit. Large deficits require … Continued

Week of August 17, 2026 Over the long term, capital markets are generally effective at incorporating all relevant information and determining fair asset values.  With the S&P 500 near all-time highs, a largely efficient market suggests that investors should be optimistic about the long-term outlook for equities.  Are corrections inevitable?  Yes.  But after more than … Continued