Week of July 20, 2026 At the height of the U.S. – Iran conflict several months ago, West Texas Intermediate crude briefly surged to $114 per barrel. Despite renewed fighting last week, oil prices have responded far more modestly. The oil market may be inferring that Iran’s efforts are unlikely to significantly disrupt global oil … Continued

While inflation is not specifically a tax, both taxes and inflation have the same net effect of reducing purchasing power.  Consider, a worker’s gross pay is reduced by a variety of deductions, including income taxes, social security, and other accruals.  What’s left is generally referred to as “take home pay”.  Inflation erodes the purchasing power … Continued

Week of July 13, 2026 Several standoffs continue to shape the investment landscape: the United States and Iran, Republicans and Democrats over fiscal policy, Russia and Ukraine, and, perhaps most importantly, the tug-of-war between bond vigilantes demanding fiscal discipline and equity investors willing to pay ever-higher prices based on future expectations. None has reached a … Continued

According to Wikipedia, “freedom of the seas” is a principle in international law and the law of the seas.  It stresses freedom to navigate the oceans.  Over the last 13 years Sigma has posted several blogs discussing the increase in the potential for disruption at obvious choke points, including, but not limited to, Gibraltar, Hormuz, … Continued

Week of July 6, 2026 Brent crude has returned to the price level it traded at a year ago, before the conflict with Iran began. Capital markets appear to be signaling expectations for a favorable resolution to the conflict—though likely not one that benefits Iran. Meanwhile, an unexpected shift in domestic politics, highlighted by the election … Continued

Over the years, Sigma has posted several blogs relating to Freedom of the Seas.  Our blog posted May 14, 2013, “Freedom of the Seas”, highlighted the risks to world trade posed by the existence of several choke points, including Gibraltar, Suez, and the Strait of Hormuz, to mention a few. Historically, Great Britain maintained the … Continued

Pandora’s box is an artifact of Greek mythology and the idiom “to open Pandora’s box” has come to mean that this action could start something that will cause unforeseen problems.  A modern equivalent is, “to open a can of worms.” California’s proposed billionaire ballot initiative would ostensibly impose a one-time tax of 5 percent on … Continued

Week of June 22, 2026 Our Monetary Policy Signal remains green. Inflation has proven more persistent than expected, reducing the need for additional Federal Reserve stimulus. New Fed Chair Warsh, a committed monetarist, reinforced this outlook during his first meeting, signaling that policy decisions will be driven by economic data rather than market or political … Continued

Week of June 15, 2026 Two issues currently confront the capital markets. In the near term, investors remain focused on the peace agreement with Iran. Will Iran honor the agreement to the satisfaction of the opposing parties to the agreement?  Any break from the region’s historical pattern of instability would represent a meaningful step toward … Continued

Wikipedia defines alarmism as the excessive or exaggerated alarm of a real or imagined threat.  Alarmists are generally pushing an agenda and attempting to excite fears or give warnings of great danger in a manner that is amplified, overemphasized, or unwarranted. This is not a new phenomenon.  Thousands of years ago, diverse cultures were led … Continued

Week of June 8, 2026 S&P Global confirmed that they are not waiving their GAAP profitability and “seasoning” requirements for inclusion into the widely followed S&P 500 index. This decision comes in the days leading up to what is slated to be the largest IPO in history, SpaceX. The inclusion requirements ensure that passive index … Continued

If you think you are a long-term investor, you need to have a time horizon measured in years, not days.  Some “investors” think that overnight is long term.  If you are reading this blog, that is probably not you.  The successful long-term investor believes that, over time, the global economy will continue to grow, providing … Continued