Week of November 3, 2025 Our U.S. Interest Rate Signal has shifted from yellow to green. Following the recent 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate announced by Fed Chair Powell, the yield curve is positively sloped and U.S. Treasury yields have declined across all maturities compared with a year ago. These developments indicate that … Continued

This proverb is widely believed to have originated in Africa several centuries ago.  It reflects the emphasis African cultures place on family and community.  While some vestiges of this concept remain, in today’s America, child care is a major problem.  Yes, sometimes grandparents are able and willing to step up, but generally, parents have to … Continued

Week of October 27, 2025 It may seem perplexing to market observers that, in a week when the U.S. government entered its fourth consecutive week of shutdown, President Trump tightened sanctions on Russian businesses, and the Israel–Hamas ceasefire remained fragile, the U.S. stock market reached all-time highs. Yet the collective intelligence of capital markets should … Continued

Week of October 20, 2025 Last week, General Motors (GM) announced a $1.6 billion charge related to its underperforming electric vehicle (EV) line, citing reduced government subsidies as a key factor. As noted in theWall Street Journalarticle “The Rest of the World is Following America’s Retreat on EVs,” other countries are also scaling back their … Continued

Merriam-Webster defines saber-rattling as overtly and often exaggeratedly threatening actions or statements, such as verbal threats or ostentatious displays of military power, that are meant to intimidate an enemy by suggesting the possible use of force. There are many examples.  Perhaps the most alarming is Russia’s threat to introduce nuclear weapons into the Ukraine conflict.  … Continued

Week of October 13, 2025 A week ago, we suggested that the equity markets were showing signs of frothiness.  On Friday, the major averages dropped about 3%. The catalyst was renewed fears of a trade war when China announced export controls on rare earth minerals and Trump threatened retaliation. We take these developments as negotiating … Continued

Over the last decade we have posted numerous blogs relating to the continuing interest in some kind of universal basic income (UBI).  During the last several years, a number of experiments have sought to assess the benefits, if any, of a carefully constructed and monitored program based on some form of UBI.  To date, none … Continued

Week of October 6, 2025 While lunching this past week at my favorite Livonia, Michigan restaurant, the owner approached me.  He pulled out his iPhone, went to the brokerage app and flashed the phone at me.  “You have to buy this. Galaxy Digital.  It’s going to $100!” Speculation is rampant and this bull market may … Continued

It is generally accepted that consumers account for approximately 70% of national GDP.  With that in mind, it is important to consider the state of consumer debt.  While it is difficult to access precise data, it appears that Americans have been maxing out their credit cards after years of inflation.  One indicator is the rapid … Continued

Week of September 29, 2025 The Teamsters’ rich contract with UPS drove Amazon, a significant customer, to walk away. Now, UAW’s costly Big Three deal negotiated in 2023 is triggering layoffs. When unions overreach, short-term gains often lead to long-term strain. For investors, expect higher labor costs to accelerate productivity-enhancing automation, benefit non-union competitors, and … Continued

Week of September 22, 2025 Economic outcomes are substantially driven by policies that result from social or cultural priorities. To wit – Obamacare promised affordable, accessible healthcare, yet high premiums and limited networks left many disillusioned. The gap between rhetoric and reality offers a cautionary tale. In New York, Zohran Mamdani’s push for rent control … Continued

Historically, the term settled science has often been used to stifle dissent. By intimidating scientists and others who beg to differ, the proponents of a particular theory create the narrative that theirs is the only explanation and therefore must be true.  Science is rarely, if ever, settled.  Scientific findings rely on a stream of evidence, … Continued