A modern-day version of an old fable updated to include leverage and greed.  Recent media reports outlining the extraordinary success of a young, tech savvy hedge fund manager illustrate what can happen when you get too greedy for extraordinary returns and employ reckless borrowing.  It all begins when Leopold Aschenbrenner, a valedictorian and OpenAI employee, … Continued

Week of August 3, 2026 As we suggested a few weeks ago, we applaud the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. His refusal to telegraph the future direction of interest rates briefly rattled the stock market, but we believe that is precisely the right approach. Markets should respond to economic fundamentals, not Fed … Continued

During nearly 70 years of employment as an equity research analyst, I never, not even once, asked for less information. Now comes a government plan to let public companies opt out of quarterly financial reporting. What are they thinking? U.S. securities regulation is disclosure-based. Reducing reporting requirements is clearly a step in the wrong direction.   All … Continued

Week of July 27, 2026 With no progress in U.S. – Iran negotiations, a stalemate increasingly appears to be the new normal. Iran can continue threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. continues its strikes. One consideration by the US might be to rally a coalition of major trading nations to impose a … Continued

Week of July 20, 2026 At the height of the U.S. – Iran conflict several months ago, West Texas Intermediate crude briefly surged to $114 per barrel. Despite renewed fighting last week, oil prices have responded far more modestly. The oil market may be inferring that Iran’s efforts are unlikely to significantly disrupt global oil … Continued

While inflation is not specifically a tax, both taxes and inflation have the same net effect of reducing purchasing power.  Consider, a worker’s gross pay is reduced by a variety of deductions, including income taxes, social security, and other accruals.  What’s left is generally referred to as “take home pay”.  Inflation erodes the purchasing power … Continued

Week of July 13, 2026 Several standoffs continue to shape the investment landscape: the United States and Iran, Republicans and Democrats over fiscal policy, Russia and Ukraine, and, perhaps most importantly, the tug-of-war between bond vigilantes demanding fiscal discipline and equity investors willing to pay ever-higher prices based on future expectations. None has reached a … Continued

According to Wikipedia, “freedom of the seas” is a principle in international law and the law of the seas.  It stresses freedom to navigate the oceans.  Over the last 13 years Sigma has posted several blogs discussing the increase in the potential for disruption at obvious choke points, including, but not limited to, Gibraltar, Hormuz, … Continued

Week of July 6, 2026 Brent crude has returned to the price level it traded at a year ago, before the conflict with Iran began. Capital markets appear to be signaling expectations for a favorable resolution to the conflict—though likely not one that benefits Iran. Meanwhile, an unexpected shift in domestic politics, highlighted by the election … Continued

Over the years, Sigma has posted several blogs relating to Freedom of the Seas.  Our blog posted May 14, 2013, “Freedom of the Seas”, highlighted the risks to world trade posed by the existence of several choke points, including Gibraltar, Suez, and the Strait of Hormuz, to mention a few. Historically, Great Britain maintained the … Continued

Pandora’s box is an artifact of Greek mythology and the idiom “to open Pandora’s box” has come to mean that this action could start something that will cause unforeseen problems.  A modern equivalent is, “to open a can of worms.” California’s proposed billionaire ballot initiative would ostensibly impose a one-time tax of 5 percent on … Continued

Week of June 22, 2026 Our Monetary Policy Signal remains green. Inflation has proven more persistent than expected, reducing the need for additional Federal Reserve stimulus. New Fed Chair Warsh, a committed monetarist, reinforced this outlook during his first meeting, signaling that policy decisions will be driven by economic data rather than market or political … Continued