Week of March 3, 2025 Deepseek-R1, a Chinese AI model that allegedly has comparable performance to existing AI models at a fraction of the cost (in dollars AND electricity), was released a little over one month ago. Despite Deepseek’s success, US tech companies continue to invest billions in AI infrastructure. Why? Because as AI progresses … Continued

We are almost certain to continue to suffer from major natural disasters such as fires, floods and a variety of windstorms, including hurricanes and tornadoes. Politically driven debates over the causes and expensive proposals that are unproven may, in the end, do little to alter the course of these natural phenomena.  Investors should recognize that … Continued

Week of February 24, 2025 In the 1980’s, Ronald Reagan mid-wifed “Supply Side Economics”, a theory espoused by Art Laffer. The concept suggested that, unlike Keynesian “demand side” economic policy, government policy to stimulate the production of goods and services via tax reduction/reduced regulation, would unleash said results.  It clearly worked as the late 1980s … Continued

Some of us are labor, some of us are managers, some of us are professionals and some of us are homeless, but all of us are consumers. Any time one segment of society gains a special advantage, all of us pay.  The consumer, in a consumer driven economy, is king.  Smart managements understand this. Smart … Continued

Week of February 17, 2025 We’ve taken several calls in the past few days from clients concerned about the Trump administration’s myriad policy changes. The concerns focus on the potential for economic instability. Democratic party leaders have suggested a “constitutional crisis” is in the offing. However, this does not jibe with capital markets where broad … Continued

Week of February 10, 2025 In our February 3, 2025 Sigma Signals, we noted that the European Union was taking action to spur economic growth on the continent. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal posted a headline reading “Europe is Looking to Roll Back Climate Accounting Rules” lending further evidence that Europe recognizes the disproportionate damage … Continued

It is probably viewed as good news when you realize that the house you bought 10-15 years ago is now valued at twice what you paid for it.  Before you break out the champagne, consider the down side.  While the good news is the increase in value, the downside is the significant increase in occupancy … Continued

Week of February 3, 2025 Last Wednesday, the European Union announced new measures to stimulate economic growth, including easing certain climate policies. This move seems to be a response to slowing economic growth, driven at least in part by the cost of climate regulations. If effective, these measures could help reverse Europe’s economic trajectory and … Continued

Can widespread adoption of AI lead to enough productivity gains to make shorter work weeks economically feasible? JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has suggested that future generations of employees could work a day and a half less every week thanks to AI. In America, a 40-hour, 5-day work week is generally considered to be the … Continued

Week of January 27, 2025 From ChatGPT: “When calculating equity investment performance during each presidential term, the inauguration date is typically used. This is because the inauguration marks the official start of the presidential term and the point at which they assume the powers and responsibilities of the office.” We would argue with this “conventional … Continued

The Crisis in Property and Casualty Insurance Premiums Is the insurance industry going to determine where you live and what you drive? Most of us are aware of the acceleration in residential and automobile insurance premiums.  Now, the industry seems to be not only seeking to protect their profit margins, through special rates for higher … Continued

Week of January 13, 2025 A New York Times article from January 9th reads with the headline; Iran Was ‘Defeated Very Badly’ in Syria, a Top General Admits. The article states that General Esbati revealed in a speech in Tehran, “I don’t consider losing Syria something to be proud of…We were defeated… we took a very big blow … Continued