We can probably all agree that Covid-19 is bad, causing unacceptable death rates, hospitalizations and economic pain. How bad? Commentators have sought to find comparable events in an effort to measure the potential long term impact of the pandemic. While this is of obvious importance to investors, definitive answers are hard to find. Most observers … Continued
Almost immediately after the Covid-19 induced March collapse in stock markets and the economy, the usual pundits began to speculate on the timing and shape of a possible recovery. The most optimistic were talking about a V shaped rebound with a rapid and broad recovery to pre Covid-19 levels. A more cautious group were contemplating … Continued
With the world’s attention focused on Covid-19 and potential therapies and vaccines, it might be a good time to reflect on the quality of discourse relating to how the issues created by the pandemic might be resolved. It is difficult for investors, the media, and others to evaluate “scientific” commentary for accuracy in the absence … Continued
Wikipedia defines Federalism in the U.S. as “the constitutional division of power between the U.S. state governments and the federal government.” Federalism is complicated in practice and has been an area of contention since the beginnings of the U.S. Over time, power has shifted away from the states and toward the national government. While still … Continued
This is the title of a successful 1973 film starring Barbra Streisand and Robert Redford. The movie focused on how a mutual attraction in college changed during and after WW2, giving rise to the fundamental premise that the two were no longer the way they were. Today we are in the middle of a serious … Continued
This question is derived from the British 19th century fairy tale, “Goldilocks and the Three Bears,” and is now very relevant to the concerns of potential travelers. Most leisure travel usually involves one or more nights away from home. As long as consumers are concerned about who will have previously occupied the room they are … Continued
This is a line spoken by Puck in Shakespeare’s play, “A Midsummer Night’s Dream.” Argentina recently announced its ninth sovereign debt default. That Argentina defaulted should not have been a surprise, but that the country had an opportunity to default a ninth time makes one wonder just who lends money to a serial defaulter after … Continued
China has lent billions to poor countries, and now they can’t pay it back. Perhaps China should have heeded J. Paul Getty’s observation, “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem, if you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” China’s global lending spree, which, over the last two decades, showered less … Continued
Yes, but it is also a country comprising 50 states. States’ rights is a complicated issue, but sufficed to say, state Governors have considerable powers, specifically enumerated in the U.S. Constitution, and do not have to always march in lock step to edicts from Washington. This may prove to be a good thing in assessing … Continued
“Necessity is the mother of invention” is a proverb that means, roughly, the primary driving force for most new inventions is a need. Now, with the world in the throes of dealing with the health and economic impact of Covid-19, the need for solutions could not be higher. While it is essentially impossible to describe … Continued
Predictive modelling uses statistics to predict outcomes. It is important to recognize that models are only as good as the modeler, who is only as good as the available data. Modelling is essentially an exercise in collecting and combining available information and, to some extent, estimates by the modeler. Some, but not all, of … Continued
According to Wikipedia, a black swan event is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. In other words, a black swan event is being blindsided, followed by finger pointing, based on 20/20 hindsight. Black … Continued
Copyright © 2024 - Sigma Investment Counselors