This question is derived from the British 19th century fairy tale, “Goldilocks and the Three Bears,” and is now very relevant to the concerns of potential travelers. Most leisure travel usually involves one or more nights away from home. As long as consumers are concerned about who will have previously occupied the room they are reserving, who is going to be sitting next to them on the plane or how to eat dinner wearing a mask while maintaining social distancing, it is going to be difficult for the travel and leisure industries to fully recover.
The travel and leisure industries represent a significant portion of the overall economy and were unusually hard hit by the stay-at-home orders intended to flatten the curve of infections. While specific rules vary between the states, the trend is clearly moving toward reopening the economy. Early signs appear to suggest that, at least some of us, are eager to get out of the house. Longer term, the rate of recovery is going to depend on the degree of consumer concern over the risk of getting sick.
All comments and suggestions are welcome.
Walter J. Kirchberger, CFA