“I’m so miserable without you, it’s almost like you’re here!” crooned country singer Billy Ray Cyrus a few years back. Investors are feeling the same about the Fed these days as that august body continues to remove monetary stimulus from the capital markets in order to contain inflation. At the margin, we would still be … Continued

The summer doldrums are upon us and while equity markets staged a rebound last week, it would appear that no near term catalyst exists for anything sustained, in either direction. Second quarter earnings reporting season also began last week with banks reporting mixed results. The inflation “toddler” is being closed watched by disciplinarian “Father” Fed … Continued

Perhaps the most important event in the movement of international cargo in the last 100 years, was the circa 1970, almost universal adoption of shipping containers.  Prior to the general use of containers, cargos typically consisted of boxes and crates that had to be loaded into large nets and hoisted into and out of a … Continued

No signal changes this week but quite a lot of “noise.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines and it appears that NATO will be content to “bleed” Russia doing “whatever it takes” to keep Russia from prevailing. The New York Times recently released its first poll of the coming election season and … Continued

Investopedia defines accountability as the acceptance of responsibility for honest and ethical conduct towards others.  In the corporate world, a company’s accountability extends to its shareholders, employees, and the wider community. The question for investors is, what can you do if a company does not meet your standards?  In theory, shareholders, by voting proxies, should … Continued

No signal changes this week. However, the US economy will likely get a boost in the long term from the Supreme Court decision last week in its ruling on the Clean Air Act, which rested on the concept of the “major questions doctrine.” At its core, the Court turned the responsibility for regulation back to … Continued

These were the words spoken by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon at a recent financial conference. Mr. Dimon warned of an economic “hurricane” on the horizon, largely due to the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) shrinking its balance sheet in response to high inflation (i.e., “quantitative tightening”), and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on commodities, including … Continued

Equity prices staged a sharp recovery last week while the signals we monitor were largely unchanged. It is likely that the equity markets will continue to show outsized, trendless volatility. The mid‐term elections in November will increasingly absorb the attention of investors and the recent Supreme Court decision reversing Roe versus Wade may change the … Continued

This is the new buzzword for the business strategy of running supply chains only through countries that are close political partners.  Businesses, mindful of the complications relating to the maintenance of supply chains in the face of unexpected challenges, such as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, are becoming increasingly cognizant of the increase in … Continued

No signal changes this week. Inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to dominate the headlines. The US economy is strong (rest of world, less so) but rising interest will prove a drag. Unlike past periods of heady economic growth, at present there is no sign of excess inventory on durable goods (housing and … Continued

Let’s hope that the Fed’s efforts to moderate inflation turn out to have the same happy ending as Disney’s movie, “Honey, I Shrunk the Kids.” As we all know, the Fed is currently in the process of bringing its financial arsenal into play in an effort to lower inflation levels and move back toward historical … Continued