This is not a prediction but may be a plausible possibility. Consider: § With oil currently trading at approximately $95.00 per barrel (down from a recent high of $110), gasoline is approaching $3.00 per gallon. § Natural Gas, at approximately $4.00 per MCF, is trading at a heating energy equivalent of $24.00 per barrel of … Continued

Recent polls taken during the ongoing government slowdown indicate that the US citizenry is losing confidence in most federal government leaders (President Obama, Republicans, Congress, etc.). At the same time, the prices of common stock indexes are near all-time highs. In elections, voters make their choices by casting their ballots. In investment portfolios, investors signal … Continued

The US Government’s annual budget is approximately $3.5 trillion. When we dig deeper, we find the following expenditures, expressed in $ (billions) and %: Medicare and Medicaid $802 23% Social Security $768 22% Defense $670 19% Discretionary $615 17% Other Mandatory $461 13% Net Interest $223 6% From this perspective, it seems highly unlikely that … Continued

Wikipedia defines hyperbole as the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. It may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create a strong impression. In the current heated political environment, hyperbole seems to be the primary method of communication. Investors need to be very careful to parse what is … Continued

According to a report in Yahoo! Finance on September 30, 2013 and quoting Sam Stovall, “The peak-to-trough decline associated with the shutdown of the U.S. government between 12/16/95 and 1/6/96 saw the S&P 500 decline 3.7%, only to witness a jump of 10.5% in the subsequent month.” Comments and questions are welcomed. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Last Thursday Ben Bernanke surprised investors by announcing the Fed was going to indefinitely continue its efforts to stimulate economic growth. It has been doing this by buying $85 billion per month of bonds and keeping long-term interest rates low. Earlier in the year, Bernanke, citing an improving economy, hinted that the Fed may taper … Continued

As we mark the five year anniversary of the financial crisis we have many reflections. I will spare myself and readers a rehash of the gut wrenching feelings most of us had at the time and instead reflect on some of the progress we have made. Five years ago there were many companies in Corporate … Continued

Based on the latest government data, the US economy is barely limping along, despite near record low interest rates. While the unemployment rate has fallen moderately, it is not reflecting the large number of citizens that are underemployed or have essentially “given up”. Perhaps a more realistic view of the job situation is the percentage … Continued

As concerns trickle out from both democrats and republicans regarding difficulties implementing ObamaCare, one has to ask whether it would make sense to suspend every aspect of the law not yet implemented, and re-write certain provisions for which the marketplace and businesses are reacting in ways harmful to the economy (such as lagging full-time employment … Continued

Yesterday I had the opportunity to attend a presentation by Sandy Pianalto, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. She provided her perspectives about what the Fed was seeing in the data/ thinking at the time they took the actions taken since mid-2008 through today (i.e. QE1, 2, Operation Twist, etc.). 1) The revisions … Continued

If I let politics get to me, my blood would be in a constant state of boil. However, the latest antics in Washington are once again beyond the pale. Rather than take any remotely serious steps towards solving the grave budget issues we face as a country, it appears the Administration’s strategy is a campaign … Continued

Front page headline, February 12, 2013 Wall Street Journal– “Millions Improperly Used Phone Program”. . Business front page headline, February 12, 2013 New York Times– “Waste Is Seen in Program to Give Internet Access to Rural U.S.” Opposite ends of the political spectrum, but same conclusion. How much more is wasted by the US government … Continued