Week of August 31, 2026
The U.S. is arranging for Venezuelan oil reserves to reach global markets just as Iran remains effectively blockaded from exporting its oil. The combination is significant: the rest of the world gains access to additional supply while Iran is increasingly isolated from the commodity on which its economy depends. This economic squeeze may ultimately prove more consequential than military pressure. By allowing Venezuelan oil into the market while restricting Iranian exports, the U.S. is placing disproportionate pressure on Iran—potentially weakening its ability to finance its government and military and increasing the likelihood of capitulation. For investors, an eventual resolution could reduce geopolitical risk and energy prices, improving the outlook for global economic growth, and providing another potential tailwind for financial markets. Our Signals remain unchanged.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
