There appears to be an increasing interest in Washington in finding new ways to tax the super wealthy (definitions vary).  Recent proposals seem to include an additional annual tax on large net worths and a tax on unrealized capital gains.  These proposals claim to be modest and directed at a very small percentage of the population. This … Continued

Week of September 23, 2024 Exploding Hezbollah terrorists pagers and walkie-talkie’s could be a “game-changer” in the cauldron that is the Middle East, one of our Signals. Arguably, the intelligence advantage apparently inuring to Israel – and promoting paranoia in Lebanon – might actually result in some type of angry truce. One cannot ignore that … Continued

Week of September 16, 2024 We have changed our Monetary Policy Signal to green.  With inflationary pressures appearing to have abated, the Fed is poised to begin lowering interest rates to aid the US economy.  All other Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

As of the second quarter of 2024, aggregate household debt approached $18 trillion, up from approximately $11.5 trillion, 10 years ago, and the Federal deficit topped $35 trillion, an increase of approximately $17 trillion, over the last ten years.  Obviously, the average US household is spending more than it earns and the Federal government is … Continued

Week of September 9, 2024 “Price gouging” is not the same as “price controls.”  If government policy is enacted to investigate price gouging, and gouging was deemed to have occurred, THEN AND ONLY THEN, do price controls become the remedy. Two totally different concepts. But, the devil may be in the details. This policy has … Continued

In market economies, governments try not to intervene and allow market forces to allocate resources.  Prices are supposed to bring supply and demand into equilibrium. In centralized or command economies, the government tries to supplant these decentralized decisions with its own, typically to favor some specific group or agenda. The foregoing represents an attempt to … Continued

Week of September 2, 2024 Beginning with last week’s edition of the Sigma Signals, we made slight changes to improve the clarity of each Signal’s definition and what the color of the Signal represents.  ‘US Treasury Note Yield’ is now ‘US Interest Rates’ to define a wider range of interest rate durations.  Additionally, ’S&P 500 … Continued

When the stock market takes one of its wild rides, there is an immediate torrent of nonsense from all the usual “experts” and everyone else with an agenda or a plan for making money from investor concerns or panic. Investors should understand that markets fluctuate.  That’s normal.  It is not a reason to suddenly abandon … Continued

Week of August 26, 2024 “The West’s Next Challenge is the Rising Axis of Autocracies” reads the Wall Street Journal headline of August 24, 2024, with the byline noting “Faced with a coalescing partnership between four autocracies – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea…”. This is a verbatim reflection of our Geo-political Signal and validates … Continued

Now that the country is in the final run up to the November elections, it might be a good time for investors to think about some of the competing proposals relating to tax and tariff policy.  In that regard, on April 17, 2024 we posted a blog titled, “Hey Washington! Corporations Don’t Pay Income Taxes, … Continued

Week of August 19, 2024 Just like that, the correction is over?  The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index closed near its all-time high last week following a tumultuous prior week.  The political fireworks begin this week as the Democratic National Convention convenes in Chicago this week.  Policy initiatives will begin to take shape from … Continued

Week of August 12, 2024 Over the last year, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note yield has fallen from around 5% to just under 4%.  This reflects concerns over global and domestic economic conditions. We are changing our US Treasury Note Signal from green to yellow. (Rumor has it that the stock market experienced notable volatility … Continued