Week of August 18, 2025 In many ways, our Sigma Signals project can be viewed as a distant cousin of Nate Silver’s 2012 book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t. Last week provided a textbook case of what we would classify as noise: plenty of headlines but little meaningful … Continued

In our blog “Don’t Confuse Brains With a Bull Market” posted July 16, 2025, we noted that there has been a considerable increase in the number of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet.  The significance of these purchases was recently summarized by QUARTZ with a list of the 10 largest publicly traded companies that … Continued

Week of August 11, 2025 Peace talks — including a planned visit by Putin to meet with President Trump in Alaska — and the completion of a trade and tariff agreement with South Korea were among the key developments of the past week. Both events likely had a positive influence on capital markets. Our Signals … Continued

Wikipedia defines Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the monetary measure of the market value of all the goods and services from a nation in a given year.  It should be noted that this is not a precise statistic, but does provide a useful measure of a country’s economic health. In round numbers, US GDP for … Continued

Week of August 4, 2025 President Trump’s response to Russia’s saber-rattling in Ukraine (nuclear threat?), along with recent U.S. strikes in Iran, reflects a pattern of assertive action aimed at reducing global conflict. While controversial, this approach appears intended to deter aggression and stabilize international relations. From a financial markets perspective, if these efforts succeed … Continued

With the recent resurgence of so-called meme stocks, it might be a good time to understand the underlying premise supporting interest in these stocks.  Specifically, it is the Bigger Fool Theory, which is based on the idea that a bigger fool than me will take these shares off my hands at a higher price than … Continued

Week of July 28, 2025 As equity markets rose to new highs over the past couple of weeks, there was a general concern that earnings might not live up to the lofty expectations that the soaring stock prices were suggesting. To date, earnings have generally been in excess of expectations and may, in fact, justify … Continued

Week of July 21, 2025 Despite President Trump’s public pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, we believe Powell is currently pursuing a prudent and appropriate monetary policy given the economic environment. The June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in at 2.7%—above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. While … Continued

Since August 2020, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has been accumulating Bitcoin.  Under Michael Saylor’s management, this strategy has been hugely successful, leading to a 3000% increase in the price of the shares.  Under the blueprint developed by Saylor, the company uses periodic issues of high yield, perpetual preferred stock to finance adding bitcoin to the … Continued

Week of July 14, 2025 Equity markets largely pulled back last week after some had reached all-time highs the prior week.  Trade negotiations and tariffs took center stage once again, with the Trump Administration focusing on improved reciprocity on trade matters.  Our Signals were unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

It sometimes seems that the political class will use every possible opportunity to describe what they are doing in a manner designed to confuse the greatest number of voters. If you understand the following analogy, you probably understand a significant part of the recently enacted BBB.   Assume your current cable bill is based on … Continued

Week of July 7, 2025 As has been noted many times, capital markets prefer certainty over uncertainty. Last week, several key uncertainties were alleviated: the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill, signs that Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities have been significantly curtailed, and a renewed commitment by NATO countries to increase defense spending—easing the financial … Continued