Week of May 25, 2026
We have changed our U.S. Interest Rate Signal to yellow, reflecting the arrival of the “new sheriff in town.” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a monetarist in the mold of Paul Volcker, is likely to tolerate somewhat higher interest rates as he works to anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations surrounding Iran’s destabilizing regional activities could prove constructive, with an agreement appearing increasingly likely. A successful outcome could place meaningful downward pressure on oil prices, helping to ease broader inflation concerns.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
