In market economies, governments try not to intervene and allow market forces to allocate resources.  Prices are supposed to bring supply and demand into equilibrium. In centralized or command economies, the government tries to supplant these decentralized decisions with its own, typically to favor some specific group or agenda. The foregoing represents an attempt to … Continued

Week of September 2, 2024 Beginning with last week’s edition of the Sigma Signals, we made slight changes to improve the clarity of each Signal’s definition and what the color of the Signal represents.  ‘US Treasury Note Yield’ is now ‘US Interest Rates’ to define a wider range of interest rate durations.  Additionally, ’S&P 500 … Continued

When the stock market takes one of its wild rides, there is an immediate torrent of nonsense from all the usual “experts” and everyone else with an agenda or a plan for making money from investor concerns or panic. Investors should understand that markets fluctuate.  That’s normal.  It is not a reason to suddenly abandon … Continued

Week of August 26, 2024 “The West’s Next Challenge is the Rising Axis of Autocracies” reads the Wall Street Journal headline of August 24, 2024, with the byline noting “Faced with a coalescing partnership between four autocracies – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea…”. This is a verbatim reflection of our Geo-political Signal and validates … Continued

Now that the country is in the final run up to the November elections, it might be a good time for investors to think about some of the competing proposals relating to tax and tariff policy.  In that regard, on April 17, 2024 we posted a blog titled, “Hey Washington! Corporations Don’t Pay Income Taxes, … Continued

Week of August 19, 2024 Just like that, the correction is over?  The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index closed near its all-time high last week following a tumultuous prior week.  The political fireworks begin this week as the Democratic National Convention convenes in Chicago this week.  Policy initiatives will begin to take shape from … Continued

Week of August 12, 2024 Over the last year, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note yield has fallen from around 5% to just under 4%.  This reflects concerns over global and domestic economic conditions. We are changing our US Treasury Note Signal from green to yellow. (Rumor has it that the stock market experienced notable volatility … Continued

A fiduciary is a person or organization that holds a legal or ethical relationship that requires the prudent care of money or other assets for another person.  A fiduciary is not tasked with addressing society’s problems. On February 8, 2023, we posted a blog titled, “ESG Meet Fiduciary,” in which we discussed the issue of … Continued

Week of August 5, 2024 Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned investors at a conference in February that it had become “…impossible to separate geopolitical risk from capital allocation.” These days, investing isn’t only about company-specific fundamentals; one must also manage potential impacts of political instability (i.e., China, Russia, Middle East). It is … Continued

A new report from the Global Literacy Excellence Center shows that the average American scored less than 50% on a financial literacy test.  If that isn’t scary enough, on average, Gen Z correctly answered only 37% of the index questions in 2024.  This is more than just disconcerting.  With a decrease in the number of … Continued

Week of July 29, 2024 The money rotating out of the high-flying technology sector “dazzlers” (punctuated by Nvidia) and into “laggards” has precipitated the notion at least that valuations across the Standard &Poor’s 500 stock index are veering towards average. The recent joint actions by the Russian and Chinese militaries to bring planes near US … Continued

Week of July 22, 2024 President Biden removed one electoral uncertainty in withdrawing his nomination as the Democratic candidate for President on Sunday, a foregone conclusion we recently posited. Now the electoral calculus focuses on his replacement – Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, or “player to be named later?” This will have enormous and obvious implications for … Continued