Nearly every trading day, some company announces operating results or other news that seem to differ markedly from consensus estimates or market expectations. This generally results in a sharp, virtually instantaneous swing in share prices. If the news is disappointing, there is often an immediate 5-10% drop in prices and if the news is good, … Continued
In intellectually preparing for a meeting with a prospective new client today, I was silently rehearsing my discussion points. I noted that clients must understand our “investment process” in order to support our efforts on their behalf. In that regard, I determined that it is best to reverse engineer the algorithm for our process and … Continued
From a macro perspective “follow the money” is a pretty good way to predict human behavior and an excellent way to explain human behavior. Right now market moves depend on which elected official, from which party, framed by which commentator, from which media outlet has just hit the air waves. Hence, last week we saw … Continued
I recently received a call from a client expressing concern about the outcome of the recent United States presidential election. And the fiscal cliff. And the problems in Europe. Etc. He feared that the outlook may have dimmed for investors in common stocks. As is often the case during emotionally charged periods, his suggestion was … Continued
“You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot build character and … Continued
Last weekend I took my Mom to see the Steven Spielberg movie “Lincoln.” If you’re looking for something in addition to turkey, football, and shopping this weekend, I gave the movie two thumbs up. The entire cast gives a great performance. Daniel Day Lewis is spot on as President Lincoln, and Tommy Lee Jones gives … Continued
At an investment conference in Chicago last week, I attended a presentation hosted by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, authors of The Campaign to Fix the Debt. I agree with their assertion that citizens need to communicate with their elected officials NOW to address this problem and follow their bi-partisan plan. I did. Please do … Continued
President Obama has been re-elected. Whether you voted for him or not, I don’t know a single person who is going to miss the political commercials, emails, and robo-calls. (Except maybe the actors and agencies hired to produce them.) The day after the election, equity markets traded down on continued bad news from Europe and … Continued
NOW! As the song from “Annie” says, tomorrow is only a day away. In the invest world, tomorrow is always a day away. It is so tempting to wait for just one more data point or event. Should I wait until after the election, which is coming in just a few days? Then, should I … Continued
Hurricane Sandy is bringing all of New York and most of the East coast to a near standstill. The stock exchanges are closed today, and are likely to remain closed on Tuesday as well. Advance notice of the storm over the weekend appears to have mitigated the amount of market disruption the shutdown has caused … Continued
It is becoming increasingly clear that the US is becoming less dependent on foreign energy. On a 12-month rolling average, domestic output hit 6.1 million barrels a day in July, up roughly 19% in three years. In 2005, the US imported 60% of its oil. That’s now down to about 42%. Increases in domestic energy … Continued
With increasing frequency, investors are trying to handicap the upcoming Presidential Election. For example, many investors are in the camp that if Mitt Romney is elected, the market will react favorably. Alternatively, many fear that if President Obama is re-elected, the market may be negatively impacted. As I reflect on the upcoming election, I have … Continued
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