A dramatic statement but actually, a relatively modest forecast. With the Dow currently at approximately 15000, a quadrupling in 20 years would require a compound average annual return of approximately 7%. Annualized total returns for the major averages, such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Mid-Cap and Russell 2000 Small-Cap, have ranged … Continued
It has been alleged that Edward VII (1841-1910) once said, “I don’t very much care what people do as long as they don’t do it on the street and frighten the horses”. Perhaps a more modern version could be applicable to Egypt, “don’t frighten the tourists”. The higher echelons of the Egyptian army are widely … Continued
Beginning in May and continuing in June, bond prices have been under pressure as interest rates have begun to rise. As a result, many investors in fixed income securities are now underwater for the year after enjoying a multi-year period of extraordinary gains. As interest rates continue to migrate higher, albeit in a very erratic … Continued
In the last 10 days, the major equity averages have lost, and then largely regained, 4% of their market value. Hence, a $1 million stock portfolio would have dropped to $960,000 and then recovered between June 21 and July 1. The frantic movements resulted largely from recent pronouncements by US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben … Continued
Seeing how far the “Britishers” will bear provocation. “To give the lion’s tail another twist” is to tax British forbearance a little further. No doubt the Kingdom is averse to war with civilized nations, and will put up with a deal rather than apply the arbitration of arms. Even victory may be bought dearly. Such … Continued
The U.K., the Netherlands and Australia have recently established new rules that will ban commissions on popular investments like mutual funds with a view to eliminating hidden charges. Competent, professional investment advice has value. After all, a difference of just 1% in annual returns amounts to approximately $180,000 over a ten-year period on an original … Continued
Earlier this week Louis Chenevert, CEO of United Technologies (UTX), was interviewed at the Paris Air Show. UTX is the manufacturer of the Pratt and Whitney airplane engines as well as the Sikorsky Helicopter. Chenevert was very bullish on the airline industry for the next one to two decades! When pressed on the reasons for … Continued
In order to enhance my grasp of global economic issues, I subscribe to a newsletter service called Stratfor. Many large corporations and government agencies are also subscribers because the company’s analysts are former military or intelligence personnel and their perspectives are often unique and valuable. I consider the owner of Stratfor, George Friedman, to be … Continued
A recent Wall Street Journal article reported one of many challenges China is facing: fast-growing numbers of elderly people. By 2015 there will be 220 million people older than 60 years old in China, compared with about 180 million today. According to the projections from the National Bureau of Statistics, within 40 years China will … Continued
This is only one of the hundreds of clever, and sometimes accurate, snippets of wisdom that populate the investment spectrum. Also, currently timely would be “June Swoon” and “Summer Rally”. In fairness, there is generally some historical basis for most of this type of “wisdom”. For example, on average, since 1950, substantially all of the … Continued
Many homeowners are starting to feel the positive effects of an early recovery in housing prices. In fact, the widely-followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is one of the broadest measures of national home prices, was up more than 10% for the 12 month period ending March 31, 2013. For most prospective homebuyers, the process … Continued
I have received several calls and emails from friends and clients of late asking if, at a level of 15,000 on the Dow Jones Industrials, the stock market has gotten ahead of itself. Certainly, measured from the trough in March of 2009, equities generally, and the Dow specifically, have more than doubled in price. That’s … Continued
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