It is completely clear that the wildfires in California have created a massive financial loss that will require billions of dollars to mitigate.  It is equally clear that no one wants to fund what is needed.  While many properties are at least partially insured, the amount of damage to the area’s infrastructure is still being … Continued

Week of April 7, 2025 With the severe equity market sell off last week, we have changed our Domestic Equity Investments Signal from yellow to green. We think that the markets have misinterpreted the Trump tariffs as final. Instead of tariff wars, we’re likely to have a reconciliation and a general reduction in global tariff … Continued

On the most basic level, there are two steps to selling anything: You create a product and then you persuade people to buy it.  If you have a better product or a lower price, your strategy is straightforward.   More likely, you are seeking to differentiate your product from near-identical competitive products.  That’s where branding steps … Continued

Week of March 31, 2025 We have changed our US Economy Signal from green to yellow.  Business confidence – particularly manufacturing – and consumer sentiment, has declined amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump‘s planned imposition of tariffs. This could lead to a reduction in spending by businesses and consumers, in concert with reduced Federal expenditures, impacting … Continued

Week of March 24, 2025 A series of bilateral conflicts are coming into sharper focus, each carrying the potential for significant and far-reaching consequences upon their resolution.  They can be summed up as:  Trump versus (pick the adversary) on a host of cases that the Supreme Court will rule upon; Democrats versus Republicans on federal … Continued

According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon had some harsh words regarding the proxy voting duopoly of Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services.  These two organizations, with an estimated 90% market share, provide recommendations to asset managers on how to vote their shares on proxy ballots.  Mr. Dimon’s … Continued

Week of March 17, 2025 Equity market indexes have approached, or broached, correction territory.  After back-to-back years of double-digit gains, this is not unusual.  Pundits are forced to attribute equity market weakness to some concurrent force, but the reality is that market psychology shifts often and the reasons are seldom clear.  The long-term outlook, led … Continued

American businesses and consumers have demonstrated an ability to adjust to changes in administrations and policies.  However, in order to do that, some clarity is important.  Obviously, it is difficult, if not impossible, to formulate strategies in a universe of rapidly moving targets. Understanding what the rules are is essential for investors when making decisions … Continued

Week of March 10, 2025 This past week, the news cycle has centered on Musk‘s DOGE initiatives and the potential crises they might spark. Much of the debate questions whether his cost cutting measures are both legal and necessary. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. federal fiscal deficit and debt impasse can be construed as a critical … Continued

This is generally viewed as an acronym for, keep it simple stupid.  This concept represents a significant challenge to managements, who seek to optimize revenues, sometimes by attempting to offer everything to everyone, while maintaining an efficient business model.  Two opposite approaches are reflected by a comment attributed to Henry Ford, “Any color the customer … Continued

Week of March 3, 2025 Deepseek-R1, a Chinese AI model that allegedly has comparable performance to existing AI models at a fraction of the cost (in dollars AND electricity), was released a little over one month ago. Despite Deepseek’s success, US tech companies continue to invest billions in AI infrastructure. Why? Because as AI progresses … Continued

We are almost certain to continue to suffer from major natural disasters such as fires, floods and a variety of windstorms, including hurricanes and tornadoes. Politically driven debates over the causes and expensive proposals that are unproven may, in the end, do little to alter the course of these natural phenomena.  Investors should recognize that … Continued