Government subsidies are never free and now we’re learning the price that semiconductor companies will have to pay if they choose to sign on to the administration’s industrial policy. The recent rollout of the federal $53 billion semiconductor program (Chips) marks an historic effort to use government resources to foster favored sectors.  It should be … Continued

Week of March 13, 2023 The dramatic and rapid failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) last week focused attention on the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy with an understanding that a casualty of this nature was not unexpected. It would appear that the Fed will continue to maintain its inflation fighting posture while simultaneously throwing a … Continued

California has had a water problem since recorded time, as discussed in our blog of January 28, 2016, “Water, Water, Everywhere…But Not a drop to Drink.” Typically, winter rain and snow provide much of the water used by Californians throughout the year.  Recently, the state has suffered through several years of drought.  One measure of … Continued

While quite different, both are under severe pressure as demand for services far exceeds supply.  Both are finding it very difficult to attract enough employees to maintain historical levels of service, to say nothing of the difficulties associated with expanding to meet increasing demand. The lack of reliable, affordable, quality day care is a serious … Continued

Week of February 27, 2023 In the history of the world, there have been perhaps 6 major developments that profoundly changed the arc of wellness for mankind. To wit: the Gutenberg printing press, electricity, Arabic numeral system, the internal combustion engine, modern aeronautics and computer chips. We are now ushering in the next – artificial … Continued

A recent article in The New York Times addressed China’s declining population.  The article noted that a fertility rate of approximately 2.1 children per woman is the minimum, without immigration, needed for the population to remain stable.  Recent data suggests that China’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.2, among the lowest in the world.  China … Continued

Week of February 20, 2023 The art and science of investing is always a contest between long-term goals and short-term events. It is easy to lose sight of the long-term when encountering particularly fear-provoking issues. A focus on historical returns often helps to control one’s emotions and the ability to adhere to strategy. No changes … Continued

Week of February 13, 2023 Last week we suggested a tilt into international stock ETF’s. The Wall Street Journal published an article this week titled “Investors Flee U.S. Stock Funds” and too noted the interest in non-U.S. equities. The trend might have short term “legs” but it would be appropriate to monitor underlying economic and … Continued

ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) is a framework designed to be embedded into an organization’s strategy that considers the needs and ways in which to generate value for all of the organizational stakeholders, including, employees, customers, suppliers and investors.  A fiduciary is a person or organization that holds a legal or ethical relationship that … Continued

According to recently reported data for the year ended June 30, 2022, the US population is continuing a recent trend of slow growth, with an increase of just 0.4%, or 1.3 million, only marginally better than 2021’s 0.1% gain.  Key factors include 245,000 more births than deaths and approximately 1.0 million net immigrants. Economic growth … Continued

Week of January 23, 2023 Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum spiked to levels not seen in a decade or more. Interest rates appear poised to plateau, and therefore we are moving our US Treasury signal from green to yellow. With commodity prices softening, we believe inflationary pressures might moderate. Certain Federal Reserve Board governors … Continued

It is becoming increasingly clear that there is a major effort to accelerate the development of renewable energy.  Unfortunately, what was already likely to be expensive, is now facing unexpected cost increases.  For example, there have been recent reports that offshore wind developers are facing financial challenges that may impede several East Coast projects.  Supply … Continued