The issue of how to find and encourage enough potential workers to actively seek employment, as part of an effort to reduce the historically unusual number of job vacancies, appears to be gaining traction in Washington.  We have previously commented on the problem of the below average labor force participation rate, most recently in our … Continued

Week of January 29, 2024 In an effort of self-assessment, we note that our “out-of-the-mainstream” yellow Signal characterization of the US economy has proven accurate as fourth-quarter US GDP showed a respectable 3.3% gain.  But, in late September we thought valuations on the SP500 were starting to look rich, moving from green to yellow and … Continued

Week of January 22, 2024 On a recent stay in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl college football classic, I endeavored to find a way to block out the New Year’s Day midnight firecrackers while staying at the hotel. I noted a new feature on the sleep app on my iPhone that provided a “brown noise” … Continued

PITI (principal, interest, taxes and insurance).  These four outlays, together with the down payment, constitute the key financial components of buying residential or commercial real estate.  Over the last several years, these costs have seen significant increases, making homeownership less affordable for more Americans. However, there may be some relief in sight for new buyers, … Continued

Week of January 16, 2024 Tensions are heating up in the Middle East again as the US and Britain recently joined forces to dissuade Yemeni Houthi’s from interfering with commercial shipping in the Red Sea. In an historical parallel decades ago, Ronald Reagan flexed muscle by staging a military intervention in Libya that quickly changed … Continued

According to a recent report published by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the US is currently producing more oil than any country in history. This spike in US output has been driven by smarter and more efficient operations in the oil industry.  Part of the gain is due to the industry’s ability to squeeze more oil out … Continued

Week of January 8, 2024 The pause that refreshes?  So it appears from the price action in the capital markets last week.  There were a few sideshow New Years fireworks largely on the political stage (Trump on the ballot?; Unemployed Ivy League college Presidents) but, otherwise, a quiet week.  Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, … Continued

Week of January 2, 2024 Happy New Year to all!  In a recent article from the Wall Street Journal, author Lingling Wei writes about China’s domestic struggles, “Home prices are falling, youth unemployment is at a record high, private investment is shrinking, the financial system is drowning in debt and deflation is setting in.” China … Continued

Meme stocks refer to a small number of stocks that gain sudden popularity on the internet and can reach sky-high prices and unusually high trading volume.  A meme stock’s price is a result of hype on social media and not necessarily related to the company’s performance.  Though there is a potential for extraordinary gains, with … Continued

Week of December 11, 2023 Have interest rates peaked, at least in the short term? Are equity prices poised to exceed former highs? Or are equity prices riding a “sugar high”? Does the recent resignation of the president of the University of Pennsylvania signal a movement away from extreme partisanship as both democrats and republicans … Continued

According to Wikipedia, an actuary is a professional, with advanced mathematical skills, who deals with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty.  For this reason, actuaries are essential to the insurance and reinsurance industries.  Based on actuarial estimates, insurance companies can calculate premium levels that can be expected to meet future claims. Investors and … Continued