Week of December 16, 2024 Niall Ferguson, a British historian and public intellectual renowned for his work on economic history, geopolitics, and global finance, recently published a Substack piece titled “The Vibe Shift Goes Global”. With the byline, “At home, Yale Law School and DEI committees are out. Abroad, strength and escalation are in,” Ferguson … Continued

Proof of concept is generally associated with product development and is used to demonstrate the feasibility or viability of an idea by collecting evidence of its practical or business potential.  It might also be a useful discipline for investors as companies pursue new, and largely untested products and services.  For example, the potential for generative … Continued

Week of December 9, 2024 We changed our Middle East signal from red to yellow last week and less than one week later, the Syrian government, led by the Assad family for five decades, fell. If we had not changed the Signal last week, this week we surely would have. Syria was kept afloat the … Continued

The Tariff Act of 1930 was a law that implemented protectionist trade policies in the United States.  The Act prompted retaliatory tariffs by many other countries.  It is important to note that the consensus view among economists is that the Act did not cause the Great Depression, but worsened it. Investors should note that tariffs … Continued

Week of December 2, 2024 Renewed “maximum pressure” is the strategy that Iran expects the Trump Administration to employ against its regime. To avoid “maximum pressure”, Iran pushed a depleted Hezbollah to negotiate a cease-fire deal with Israel and then Iran met with various European officials in Geneva to discuss their nuclear program, amongst other … Continued

Week of November 25, 2024 For fans of the gridiron, this is the week of The Game. Michigan versus Ohio State in Columbus. The week has always been met with much anticipation as the coaches prepare their teams. In a similar vein, President elect Trump is assembling his Cabinet “team” and developing political strategy. As … Continued

Generally, these have been the primary determinants in the acceptance of new, improved and/or innovative products and services.  In some cases, if the better is much better, cheaper is not necessarily the determining factor.  The smart phone comes to mind.  Current smart phones are so much better than historic landlines, that higher prices have not been a … Continued

Week of November 18, 2024 The winter holiday season is near, and that means Americans are gearing up to spend. A recent Gallup Poll suggests that Americans on average will spend over $1,000 on gifts this holiday season, a modest increase from last year. This bodes well for economic growth, as consumer spending makes up … Continued

Productivity is a measure of performance that compares the output of a product with the input, or resources required to produce it.  Economists see productivity as the key source of economic growth.  A country’s ability to improve its standard of living depends on its ability to raise its output per worker.  This does not mean … Continued

Week of November 11, 2024 Explosive rallies in global equity markets greeted the end of the US presidential election cycle last week. They were pronounced – either because of, or in spite of, the Republican sweep. Time will tell. Split government seems historically to have resulted in better policy. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, … Continued

According to Wikipedia, smoke and mirrors is a classic technique in magical illusions that make an entity appear to hover in empty space.  More recently the phrase has entered common English use to refer to any proposal that, when examined closely, proves to be an illusion. Investors should be cautious when approached with mind blowing … Continued

Week of November 4, 2024 On November 3, early Sunday morning, the top two queries on Google search were “How do I vote” and “What time does the time change.”  Metaphorically, these two seem oddly related.  It leaves one pondering.  No change to our Signals. Bob Bilkie, CFA