Week of September 11, 2023 Earlier in the year we were warned about the refinancing “cliff” that would occur this past August as commercial mortgages came due. Estimates of the amount in question collectively exceeded $800 billion. However, August bought nothing but radio silence. Something is going on behind the scenes. Are landlords and bankers … Continued

Over the last several months, the US has suffered through several catastrophic events, including wildfires in Canada, a wildfire in Hawaii and a hurricane in Florida.  All of these have a few things in common; predictability, a lack of preparation, finger pointing and an effort to blame climate change. Unfortunately, the political process works against … Continued

Week of September 4, 2023 A sign at the train station in York, UK today reads “Industrial Action: This strike action will cause significant disruption….” Headline on the CNBC website dated 9/2/23 reads “Hollywood sheds 17,000 jobs in August amid ongoing strikes.” In Detroit, the UAW is threatening work stoppages at all Big 3 auto … Continued

Week of August 28, 2023 All signs point to an end to China’s economic boom. Many economist puzzled over the country’s success as planned economies rarely exhibited such sustained and exuberant growth (see such failures as Russia, Venezuela, and Cuba as examples). Global economic growth likely persists, however, given the increasing role that other emerging … Continued

Air quality alerts and record temperatures are stark evidence of material environmental problems, with many sources, particularly for individuals with compromised immune systems.  You don’t have to be a believer or nonbeliever in climate change/global warming to realize that there is a problem.  The question is, what to do about it?  Reducing dependence on fossil … Continued

Week of August 21, 2023 Prior to the inflation surge that occurred in the United States in the mid-1970s, US 10-year Treasury Note yields averaged between 4 1/2% and 6% in the mid-1960’s. Today, the 10-year Treasury Note yields 4.25%, suggesting yields have nearly normalized. This assumes inflationary pressures continue to moderate. If inflation remains … Continued

Week of August 14, 2023 A recession can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. As consumer sentiment declines, so does consumer spending. If the economic outlook is grim, consumers feel they have to spend less. Fewer transactions and a falling velocity of money lead to recessionary concerns. Thus, a negative feedback loop is born. The Consumer Sentiment … Continued

Wikipedia defines alarmism as excessive or exaggerated alarm of a real or imagined threat. Alarmism connotes attempts to excite fears or give warning of great danger in a manner that is amplified, overemphasized or unwarranted.  This is not new and has a number of possible causes, such as seeking recognition, funding and/or votes.  Of course, … Continued

Week of August 7, 2023 Singing with intensity, fury, and tenacity. Taylor Swift is predicted to generate as much as $1 billion of GDP in the United States this year. Her earnings will be off the charts. Is there moral outrage? No. Should there be? No. This is the American dream, personified. Our Signals remain … Continued

As cars and trucks become generally more available, following the problems associated with Covid and the supply chain, ownership costs are accelerating.  Four of the five primary costs associated with owning and operating personal vehicles, purchase price, repairs, insurance, and financing, are all rising, in some instances, by a lot.  Only fuel costs have been moderating. … Continued

Week of July 31, 2023 Gold spiked up last week to within 5% of its all time high reached in April. The one-month US Treasury Bill yield also spiked up to a 20 year high at 5.4%. Typically, rising rates on short term treasuries portends a drop in inflationary expectations which would lead to a … Continued