“Those Who Fail To Learn From History Are Doomed To Repeat It”

This quote, attributed to George Santayana, can be applicable to a wide range of human experiences and endeavors.  While it is impossible to list all of them, recent press coverage of China’s air pollution problems represents an interesting example. China’s pollution crisis has been attributed to decades of unrestrained industrialization.  While improving the economic outlook … Continued

Brexit, Exit Update

With the resolution of the appropriate, legal path for the implementation of Brexit, the British House of Commons began debating the issue on January 31.  It is currently expected that a final bill will be approved by early March, after which, negotiations with the European Union (EU) can commence.  This process may take some time. … Continued

Dow 100,000

Unless the U.S. economy enters into an extended period of negative growth, Dow 100,000 is not a question of whether, but rather, when. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 100 in January 1906, 1,000 in November 1972 and 10,000 in March of 1999.  In mathematical terms, growth can be arithmetic, where gains are linear, or … Continued

A Super, Super Bowl

The just played Super Bowl may well have been the most exciting in the games 51 year history. The biggest comeback in history! First Super Bowl to go into overtime! Hopefully, the last word on Inflategate. The game also has a useful lesson for investors.  Don’t forget what got you there.  When markets are going against … Continued

“What, Me Worry?”

First, thanks to Alfred E. Newman and Mad magazine. The conventional wisdom among economists has generally held that people don’t like uncertainty and the unknowable.  When faced with the prospect of disruption and changes without clear outcomes, they become less confident and more cautious about making big decisions, particularly as they relate to finances. Over … Continued

You’re Only as Good as Your Team

Virtually all human endeavors involve team work to some extent.  In sports, the application to team sports is obvious.  Even in sports where the individual appears to be crucial, a team is still a major factor.  For example, NASCAR drivers, no matter how talented, depend on the mechanics who set up their cars and the … Continued

Momentum

During almost any sports broadcast, you hear the word “momentum”, which psychologists define as psychological momentum.  Of course, the key question is, does it exist, is it just a temporary shift in confidence or mood, or does it actually change the outcome of a game or a season? “The Oxford Dictionary of Sport Science” defines … Continued

Freedom of the Seas and the Strait of Malacca-Update

We have previously commented on the importance of “freedom of the seas” (17May16) and the significance of the Strait of Malacca to international trade. Recent news reports and satellite photos suggest that China has introduced powerful anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapons systems on all seven of the islands it has built in the South China Sea, … Continued

Forecasting Investment Returns

This is never easy, but the board of the largest U.S. pension fund is taking a new look at what the future might bring.  The California Public Employee’s Retirement System (Calpers) plans to lower the current 7.5% goal to 7.0%, phased in over the next thee years. With this decision, Calpers is changing its business … Continued

Reverse Mortgages Revisited

Last June in our blog titled Reverse Mortgages, we noted that, while reverse mortgages may have a role in retirement planning, some of the promotional efforts may not provide enough information regarding risks. In December 2015, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ordered three companies to stop misleading ads and to pay combined penalties of approximately … Continued

“Much Ado About Nothing”/”The Art of the Deal”

First, credits to William Shakespeare and Donald Trump. Now, the “Much Ado About Nothing” part of the discussion.  Recently, Mr. Trump has expressed displeasure regarding several auto industry vehicle assembly strategies.  He criticized GM for importing a few thousand Chevy Cruzes from Mexico, even though nearly all Cruzes, for sale in the US, are assembled … Continued

The Outlook for Electric Vehicles

With the recent introduction of the Chevrolet Bolt EV (electric vehicle), some clarification as to consumer acceptance of EVs may emerge. U.S. sales of EVs have been statistically insignificant, with full year unit volume likely to come in below 150,000 compared to total 2016 U.S. vehicle sale of approximately 18 million units.  Based on reported … Continued