Week of May 28, 2024 “It’s not bragging if it’s true”, so said American author, Sara Shephard.  Nvidia can lay claim to said merit with continuing explosive sales and earnings growth as reported last week.  In fact, the heady results likely reversed a short-lived stock market decline when reported as the Standard & Poor’s 500 … Continued

Seeking increased revenue appears to be a chronic preoccupation among our elected officials.  However, with December 31, 2025 expiration of major pieces of former President Trump’s 2017 tax law, we can expect increases in commentary and new heights of obfuscation.  While it is impossible to handicap the eventual outcome, investors should prepare for some targeted … Continued

Week of May 20, 2024 When the news cycle is devoid of meaningful developments and capital markets are moving sideways, nervous energy can creep into the psyche. Nicholas Murray Butler, President of Columbia University in the 1930’s, opined that “Nervous energy is the greatest destroyer of portfolio wealth.” Caveat emptor. Our Signals remained unchanged this … Continued

Week of May 13, 2024 On April 19, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index hit a monthly low of $4,967. As of May 10, it sits at $5,223, a gain of 5%.  What changed in three weeks to precipitate this rather heady, short-term advance?  Nothing.  Purely a psychological shift, a normal factor in free … Continued

For most of us, the most significant negative cash flow asset in our portfolio is our residence.  Yes, if you own your home, you may benefit from the long-term trend of rising real estate prices, and, you have the essential benefit of shelter.  However, home ownership comes with a long list of expenses, including insurance, … Continued

Week of May 6, 2024 May 4, 2024 was the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.  Chairman Warren Buffett intoned many years ago that “In the short term, the market is a popularity contest; in the long term, it’s a weighing machine.”  His late Vice-Chair, Charlie Munger, preached patience.  Of course, for investors, patience means having … Continued

According to an article published in USA TODAY, America has a new epidemic.  It doesn’t respond to traditional therapies, even though it has debilitating and often deadly consequences. The problem, gradually becoming more pervasive, is loneliness.  US Surgeon General, Dr. Vivek Murphy is hoping to generate awareness and offer remedies before it claims more lives.  … Continued

Week of April 29, 2024 While there are no changes to our Signals this week, we would like to highlight the importance of, and reason for, the presence of social and cultural factors as a Signal that helps inform investment decision-making. Just this week, on campuses across the United States, protests have sprung up over … Continued

Week of April 22, 2024 We have changed our Monetary Policy signal from green to yellow, given the recent firming of inflationary pressures in the US and the likelihood that the Fed will have to slow its expected pace of monetary easing. We also replaced “China” with “Middle East“ as a focus of the Biden … Continued

The political class is again seeking to support proposed spending with new and increased taxes.  An apparent favorite for increases is the corporate tax rate.  It is important to understand that, while corporations may send money to Washington, those funds are collected from individuals as part of the selling price.  The only sources of revenues … Continued

Week of April 15, 2024 Domestic common stocks generally advanced in 2023. Some of the gains were realized by investors, meaning tax bills need to be paid by April 15. The funds to pay those taxes, to a degree, are generated by selling more stocks in the mid-April period and last week saw broad common … Continued

The Federal government and many individuals have been on a deficit spending spree. Economists generally agree that more deficit spending by government increases inflation.  Individual’s deficit spending, through a seemingly endless increase in credit card balances, also contributes to inflationary forces.  There is no deterministic model to determine how government (and household) budget deficits drive … Continued