Week of July 24, 2023 The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index peaked at roughly $4,779 in October of 2021. This past week it closed at $4,536, about 5% off of its prior high and roughly 25% above the lows reached in the summer of 2022. As mentioned in recent Sigma Signals, the failure of … Continued
Week of March 6, 2023 Last week we referenced the revolutionary advances for humankind that will likely be advanced by the wonders of artificial intelligence (AI). This week we direct attention to an article in the Wall Street Journal dated February 25, 2023 entitled “ChatGPT Heralds an Intellectual Revolution.” Lead author Henry Kissinger (amazingly intellectually … Continued
Week of February 6, 2023 Given the myriad concerns that enveloped global capital markets during the past 12 months – Russian invasion of Ukraine, US midterm elections, China intimidation of Taiwan, a restive Fed committed to fight inflation – it is not unusual that volatility pervades. However, after touching an interim low last October, the … Continued
Week of January 30, 2023 It has been observed in tracking investment data by geographic sector and market capitalization over long periods of time that returns tend to converge (8%- 10%). When returns deviate in the short term, it is reasonable to expect that a regression to the mean will follow. For the last several … Continued
Historically, motor fuel taxes have been a significant source of revenue, with most of the receipts committed to road construction and maintenance. Today, governments are aggressively promoting the development and purchase of electric vehicles (EVs). As the number of EVs on the road increases, motor fuel tax receipts have started to dwindle. Over the next … Continued
This line from Kenny Roger’s song “The Gambler”, summarizes the most difficult part of the investment process, admitting you made a mistake and taking your losses. Many investors often tend to close their eyes rather than confront the facts. This problem is not limited to individuals. The financial pages are littered with examples of some … Continued
According to Wikipedia, money is any item of verifiable record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts, such as taxes, in a particular country or socio-economic context. As a practical matter, money is what the government says it is, or isn’t. The People’s Bank of China recently said … Continued
Subjective: based on or influenced by personal feelings, tastes or opinions. Objective: expressing or dealing with facts or conditions as perceived without distortion by personal feelings, prejudices or interpretations. In politics and academia, but not sports, there seems to be an increasing trend toward subjective evaluations when objective results don’t provide the desired outcomes. That … Continued
We have previously discussed the issue of definition for funds purporting to offer an emphasis on focused investment themes. See our blog of April 14, 2021 titled How Many Raisins in a Box of Raisin Bran, in which we suggest that the fund manager decides what is a raisin and what isn’t. Now the European … Continued
This comment was attributed to a Wyoming company in February 1973. Energy prices were rising, but toughened environmental laws prevented finding more energy sources. Various iterations, some of which were not suitable for general viewing, became popular in Texas during the 1973-74 energy crisis. Now we seem to be seeing Deja vu all over again, … Continued
One of the key tenants of successful investing is an ability to determine which ‘facts” are relevant. Consider recent headlines noting that U.S. Covid-19 deaths had surpassed total deaths attributable to the 1918-19 flu pandemic. This statement is clearly factually correct. But how relevant is this data when one recognizes that the U.S. population is … Continued
The Wall Street Journal recently published a review of a new book by Gregg Easterbrook, “The Blue Age: How the U.S. Navy Created Global Prosperity—And Why We’re in Danger of Losing It”, that highlights the relative peace and tranquility on the seas, courtesy of the U. S. Navy. The importance of ocean shipping has been … Continued
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