Investors are continuously subject to extravagant projections by those who are seeking to attract financing.  These can range between borderline, or even outright fraud, think Theranos, or relatively minor, and often unintentional estimate shortfalls, such as a slippage of time lines.  Think the ever shifting timeline for the start of production for Tesla’s cyber truck … Continued

It is generally accepted that, over the last two years, a significant number of Americans have left the workforce for a wide variety of reasons. As a result, workforce participation has seen a material decline. Among those who have left, it appears that a number chose early retirement, perhaps over health concerns or because a … Continued

Investors typically seek to build portfolios that focus on companies with pricing power.  Without that, as costs increase, margins can be squeezed.  Currently, we seem to be in a period of rising costs, particularly for labor and certain commodities.  Companies are likely to look first to productivity gains and raw material substitution, but, sooner or … Continued

Wikipedia defines cynicism as an attitude characterized by a general distrust of other’s motives.  Investors would be well served by maintaining a healthy level of skepticism regarding other’s motives when evaluating projections and other factors surrounding an investment decision.  Think Theranos. Consider the recurring attacks on the safety of cruising.  Now the CDC says don’t … Continued

Natural gas is an important raw material in a wide range of economic activities, including heating, electric power generation, plastics, manufacturing processes and agriculture.  For example, fertilizer prices, responding to significant cost increases for key chemical ingredients such as natural gas, have more than doubled over the last year.  This can have a two pronged … Continued