Is Labor-Force Participation Improving?

We have previously discussed the importance of labor-force participation (see blogs from 09 Jan 2018 , 16 Mar 2018 and 18 May 2018 ). Recent data suggests that the labor-force participation rate has started to improve, probably thanks to a strong economy and significant increases in the de facto minimum wage, to approximately $15 per … Continued

Are Investors and The Fed Out of Sync?

There seems to be a disconnect between the Fed’s expectations and those of investors.  The Fed appears to continue to expect that the economy will grow at rate above 2% during 2019, which, when viewed in the context of very low unemployment, could lead to an inflation rate above the Fed’s 2% target. Investors by … Continued

Lackluster Economic Growth?

To varying degrees, commentators and economists are suggesting that the U.S. economy seems to be struggling to sustain a growth rate on the order of 2%, while most observers believe that growth on the order of 3% would be highly beneficial and, is also generally considered to be a reasonable target. June unemployment has fallen … Continued

Wealth Effect?

It is clear that there have been significant increases in U.S. household wealth since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, largely due to substantial increases in stock market and home valuations.  In the past, large gains in household wealth have stimulated higher levels of consumer spending.  This does not appear to be the case … Continued