Forecasting Investment Returns

This is never easy, but the board of the largest U.S. pension fund is taking a new look at what the future might bring.  The California Public Employee’s Retirement System (Calpers) plans to lower the current 7.5% goal to 7.0%, phased in over the next thee years. With this decision, Calpers is changing its business … Continued

Reverse Mortgages Revisited

Last June in our blog titled Reverse Mortgages, we noted that, while reverse mortgages may have a role in retirement planning, some of the promotional efforts may not provide enough information regarding risks. In December 2015, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ordered three companies to stop misleading ads and to pay combined penalties of approximately … Continued

“Much Ado About Nothing”/”The Art of the Deal”

First, credits to William Shakespeare and Donald Trump. Now, the “Much Ado About Nothing” part of the discussion.  Recently, Mr. Trump has expressed displeasure regarding several auto industry vehicle assembly strategies.  He criticized GM for importing a few thousand Chevy Cruzes from Mexico, even though nearly all Cruzes, for sale in the US, are assembled … Continued

The Outlook for Electric Vehicles

With the recent introduction of the Chevrolet Bolt EV (electric vehicle), some clarification as to consumer acceptance of EVs may emerge. U.S. sales of EVs have been statistically insignificant, with full year unit volume likely to come in below 150,000 compared to total 2016 U.S. vehicle sale of approximately 18 million units.  Based on reported … Continued

Jobs, Trade, Automation and Productivity

These are issues that are likely to loom large over the next several months as the new administration settles in and begins to implement its agenda.  Jobs are likely to be a recurring theme as the new administration seeks to address the fears of some of its key constituencies.  While it is too early to … Continued

Financial Advisors

Investopedia, a privately owned for-profit American website that focuses much of its content on investing education and financial news, recently conducted a survey that concluded that investors using digital advisors are nearly as happy as those who work with traditional advisors.  However, most respondents indicated that there are certain services that warrant human help. The … Continued

OPEC and the Price of Oil

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently announced an agreement to reduce oil production by approximately 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 4%.  Markets responded with a 10% increase in prices. While OPEC no longer has the almost dominant position it enjoyed during the oil embargo of 1973-74, the group remains in … Continued

Designer Coffee and Your 401k

According to the National Coffee Association, between 2008 and 2016, the share of 18-24-year-olds who said they had bought a gourmet coffee beverage the day before rose to 36% from 13%. This may account for a Starbucks project to launch high-end coffee shops that would charge as much as $12 for a 12 ounce cup … Continued

Taxes: Rates or Revenues

It is becoming increasingly apparent that there is likely to be a credible effort to enact tax reform during the nest session of Congress. Most of the preliminary discussions appear to suggest that some reduction in personal and corporate tax rates is on the table.  It is important to note that rate and revenue are … Continued

Elections Have Consequences

Many market and economic forecasters like to tie some of their predictions to changes in the political scene, particularly when there is a material change in control.  Typically, projections tend to examine historical market action and compare key data points to the current situation, in an effort to provide insight as to possible future market … Continued

Trade Agreements/Trade Wars?

The election is over, but both candidates campaigned against trade agreements, such as the North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).  What is this all about and why is it important to consumers and investors? Wikipedia defines a trade agreement as a wide ranging tax, tariff, and trade treaty that often includes … Continued

Universal Basic Income Revisited

Approximately a year ago we noted that there had been a number of proposals by economists and political scientists relating to the concept of universal basic income.  (Click here to read our Universal Basic Income blog from 17 Dec 2015)  A few days ago, Tesla Motors CEO, Elon Musk, suggested that universal basic income, or … Continued