In Las Vegas, on any given day, a gambler can strike it rich or lose it all. However, over time, the house always wins. On Wall Street, on any given day, an equity investor can strike it rich or lose it all. However, over time, stocks have proven to be a winning bet. This is … Continued
It is becoming increasingly apparent that major TV entertainment events, such as NFL games and major award shows, are suffering from declining ratings. Most recently, viewership for the Grammy Awards were down approximately 24%, setting a nine year low. This is a significant development for broadcasters, advertisers and investors. According to a recent article in … Continued
Wikipedia defines conventional wisdom as the body of ideas or explanations accepted as true by the public and/or experts in the field. Wikipedia goes on to note that conventional wisdom is not necessarily true. It is, additionally, often seen as an obstacle to the acceptance of newly acquired information. Never-the-less, conventional wisdom, more often than … Continued
A recent commentary written by Liz Szabo for Kaiser Health News discusses some of the issues relating to benefits and risks associated with cancer screening for the elderly. In her article, she states that, according to the American Journal of Public Health, nearly one in five women, with severe cognitive impairment, including older patients, are … Continued
Recently released global airline accident data indicates that not a single airline passenger suffered a fatality from a jet crash anywhere in the world in 2017. This is almost an unimaginable safety milestone, even though the average number of airliner accidents and fatalities has been declining since 1997. While there have been a few fatal … Continued
Historically, investors have tended to plan and save for retirement with a specific age in mind, often 65. An age based strategy used to make sense as, in many cases, it was driven by the timing of pension benefits and the start of Medicare and full Social Security eligibility. Now that defined benefit pension plans … Continued
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. economy is running at its full potential, defined as the maximum sustainable growth rate, for the first time in a decade. Most economists agree that an economy’s sustainable growth rate is determined by how many people are working and how productive they are. It appears that the … Continued
Since the turn of the century, U.S. labor-force participation has been weakening. There have been numerous attempts to explain this phenomenon, with little agreement. Most of the theories have revolved around inadequate pay, increased safety net benefits such as disability payments, and the thought that a recovering economy would solve the problem by encouraging greater … Continued
Over the last several months, several major employers have announced increases in the minimum hourly rate they plan to pay during 2018 (see our blog from November 3). These planned wage increases have tended to anticipate that their lowest pay rate would approximate $11.00-12.00 per hour in 2018 with additional increases in future years. Subsequently, … Continued
Early in my career, a very successful investor shared this bit of advice with me. His logic follows: Companies do not like to report poor results or results that fall short of Wall Street estimates. Financial statements, both income and balance sheets, include a significant number of estimates. For example, balance sheets show accounts receivable … Continued
Everyone is probably familiar with the motivational efforts of sports teams’ managers and coaches and legendary half time speeches. Experience suggests that a team that expects to win, is more likely to be successful, and a team that expects to lose, probably will. Investors might want to consider if the same may apply to business, … Continued
Market observers are well aware of the immediate price reaction when a company’s quarterly earnings beat expectations, or fall short. Perhaps not quite as widely understood, is the significance of broader economic estimates. Over the last several years, economists have consistently underestimated economic strength, both in the U.S. and internationally. As a result, we have … Continued
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