It’s The Economy, Stupid

No, this is not about politics, although the original phrase was coined by James Carville in 1992 in connection with President Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign.  According to Wikipedia, the original phrase was, “The economy, stupid”, but is often mistakenly rendered as, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Obviously, the state of the economy and the outlook … Continued

One Man, One Vote, One Time

The concept of one man, one vote is a slogan used by advocates of political equality through various electoral reforms.  This concept has wide acceptance in developed and many developing countries. The addition of “one time” to the slogan stems from situations where elections were held successfully with a minimum of corruption and violence, but … Continued

Has Retailing Become A Zero Sum Game?

Looking at recent earnings reports from the country’s major retailers, it is apparent that some have been very successful, handily beating expectations, while several have reported disappointing results and provided reduced guidance, with surprisingly few in between.  Has retailing devolved into success based on grabbing market share?  To some extent, this may be the case.  … Continued

Reversion to the Mean – A Reminder

Reversion to the mean is not a new concept and we most recently discussed the principle in a blog, Reversion to the Mean, posted on 11/1/2017.  With the popular averages up some 30% in 2019 it might seem logical to expect a sharp reduction in the near future.  This may occur, but it is important … Continued

“Fix the Damn Roads”

This was a major talking point in Gretchen Whitmer’s successful campaign for Governor of Michigan.  The problem of a deteriorating infrastructure is not limited to roads or to Michigan.  Infrastructure has been a recurring theme in state and national politics for years, and phrases like “shovel ready” raised hopes that the political class would finally … Continued

What is the Secure Act?

The Secure Act is piece of retirement legislation that was making headlines the past several months as it navigated through Congress. The House of Representatives passed the proposal back in May of 2019 and it was recently approved by the Senate in the middle of December. The Secure Act imposes a spectrum of changes primarily … Continued

The Difficulty in Market Timing

We live in uncertain times.  Domestically, we are confronted with a divided Congress, impeachment of our President, an annual deficit that is now greater than $1 trillion and a national debt that has topped $23 trillion.  Overseas, we are engaged in a trade war with China, we are under a constant nuclear threat with Russia, … Continued

Did You Keep Your Landline?

Extended power outages, which are likely to recur in California, are revealing an inconvenient truth about modern telephones: no power, no phone service.  Power outages cut service to cell towers and to cable providers that sell home voice services, often advertised as land lines.  Consequently, hundreds of thousands of households may be cut off from … Continued

“If You Build It, He Will Come”

According to Wikiquote, this was ranked as #39 of the 100 most memorable American movie quotations of all time.  In the film, Field of Dreams, an Iowa corn farmer builds a baseball diamond, and storied deceased baseball players emerge from the cornfields to play ball. This concept works well for the movie, but may prove … Continued

Critical Mass

No, this not about bombs.  It’s about investing in new and developing companies.  Investopedia defines critical mass, in a business context, as the point at which a growing company becomes self-sustaining and no longer needs additional investment to remain economically viable. Over the last several years, a number of rapidly growing companies have entered the … Continued

Beware of Government Subsidies

Investors would be well advised to be cautious when evaluating investment opportunities based on government efforts to artificially, and often temporarily, affect consumer behavior. Consider the causes and implications of falling electric vehicles (EV) sales in China, the world’s largest market, accounting for approximately 60% of global output last year. China has been reducing subsidies … Continued

Take the Current Rally with a Grain of Salt

As I pen this article, major US stock indices are hitting all-time highs.  As a result, many investors are peering at their statements or live-streaming devices and are giddy that their net worth continues to climb. When times are good, it is human nature to remember these high water marks and use these elevated market … Continued