Week of August 1, 2022 Commentary: Regarding the economy, “If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it’s a duck!” Unlike past recessions, the labor shortage in the US suggests few layoffs and hence, this could be a “Daffy Duck” recession ‐ few economic consequences for consumers. The Fed raised interest rates … Continued

Historically, politics has often been considered to be the art of the possible, a matter of pragmatism instead of idealism.  It would seem that currently, politics has turned into a blood sport, with the goal of destroying the opposition, rather than finding a middle ground that both sides can live with. This may, in part, … Continued

“I’m so miserable without you, it’s almost like you’re here!” crooned country singer Billy Ray Cyrus a few years back. Investors are feeling the same about the Fed these days as that august body continues to remove monetary stimulus from the capital markets in order to contain inflation. At the margin, we would still be … Continued

The summer doldrums are upon us and while equity markets staged a rebound last week, it would appear that no near term catalyst exists for anything sustained, in either direction. Second quarter earnings reporting season also began last week with banks reporting mixed results. The inflation “toddler” is being closed watched by disciplinarian “Father” Fed … Continued

Perhaps the most important event in the movement of international cargo in the last 100 years, was the circa 1970, almost universal adoption of shipping containers.  Prior to the general use of containers, cargos typically consisted of boxes and crates that had to be loaded into large nets and hoisted into and out of a … Continued

No signal changes this week but quite a lot of “noise.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines and it appears that NATO will be content to “bleed” Russia doing “whatever it takes” to keep Russia from prevailing. The New York Times recently released its first poll of the coming election season and … Continued

Investopedia defines accountability as the acceptance of responsibility for honest and ethical conduct towards others.  In the corporate world, a company’s accountability extends to its shareholders, employees, and the wider community. The question for investors is, what can you do if a company does not meet your standards?  In theory, shareholders, by voting proxies, should … Continued

No signal changes this week. However, the US economy will likely get a boost in the long term from the Supreme Court decision last week in its ruling on the Clean Air Act, which rested on the concept of the “major questions doctrine.” At its core, the Court turned the responsibility for regulation back to … Continued

These were the words spoken by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon at a recent financial conference. Mr. Dimon warned of an economic “hurricane” on the horizon, largely due to the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) shrinking its balance sheet in response to high inflation (i.e., “quantitative tightening”), and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on commodities, including … Continued

Equity prices staged a sharp recovery last week while the signals we monitor were largely unchanged. It is likely that the equity markets will continue to show outsized, trendless volatility. The mid‐term elections in November will increasingly absorb the attention of investors and the recent Supreme Court decision reversing Roe versus Wade may change the … Continued