Week of August 18, 2025
In many ways, our Sigma Signals project can be viewed as a distant cousin of Nate Silver’s 2012 book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t. Last week provided a textbook case of what we would classify as noise: plenty of headlines but little meaningful signal. The loudest of the noise was President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, which ultimately amounted to a non-event. Our Signals remained unchanged.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
