Week of January 27, 2025
From ChatGPT: “When calculating equity investment performance during each presidential term, the inauguration date is typically used. This is because the inauguration marks the official start of the presidential term and the point at which they assume the powers and responsibilities of the office.” We would argue with this “conventional wisdom” as markets are discounting mechanisms that anticipate future policy actions and adjust prices accordingly. The period November 5, 2024 to January 20, 2025 bears this out. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week, business leaders hailed a revival of animal spirits. “There is a tremendous amount of optimism,” said New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin. The pipeline of initial public offerings that froze under Joe Biden’s regulatory onslaught has thawed. Our Signals remain unchanged.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
