Week of January 29, 2024 In an effort of self-assessment, we note that our “out-of-the-mainstream” yellow Signal characterization of the US economy has proven accurate as fourth-quarter US GDP showed a respectable 3.3% gain. But, in late September we thought valuations on the SP500 were starting to look rich, moving from green to yellow and … Continued
Week of January 22, 2024 On a recent stay in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl college football classic, I endeavored to find a way to block out the New Year’s Day midnight firecrackers while staying at the hotel. I noted a new feature on the sleep app on my iPhone that provided a “brown noise” … Continued
PITI (principal, interest, taxes and insurance). These four outlays, together with the down payment, constitute the key financial components of buying residential or commercial real estate. Over the last several years, these costs have seen significant increases, making homeownership less affordable for more Americans. However, there may be some relief in sight for new buyers, … Continued
Week of January 16, 2024 Tensions are heating up in the Middle East again as the US and Britain recently joined forces to dissuade Yemeni Houthi’s from interfering with commercial shipping in the Red Sea. In an historical parallel decades ago, Ronald Reagan flexed muscle by staging a military intervention in Libya that quickly changed … Continued
According to a recent report published by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the US is currently producing more oil than any country in history. This spike in US output has been driven by smarter and more efficient operations in the oil industry. Part of the gain is due to the industry’s ability to squeeze more oil out … Continued
Week of January 8, 2024 The pause that refreshes? So it appears from the price action in the capital markets last week. There were a few sideshow New Years fireworks largely on the political stage (Trump on the ballot?; Unemployed Ivy League college Presidents) but, otherwise, a quiet week. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, … Continued
Nearly 200 countries and thousands of delegates burned untold quantities of jet fuel to meet and agree to a new, completely unenforceable climate deal, at the COP28 talks in Dubai. The agreement marks the first time the annual UN meeting has asked countries to move away from fossil fuels. The agreement doesn’t require a phase-out … Continued
Week of January 2, 2024 Happy New Year to all! In a recent article from the Wall Street Journal, author Lingling Wei writes about China’s domestic struggles, “Home prices are falling, youth unemployment is at a record high, private investment is shrinking, the financial system is drowning in debt and deflation is setting in.” China … Continued
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