Week of April 10, 2023
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is currently perched almost exactly halfway between its cyclical high reached in January of 2022 and its recent low notched in October, 2022. One might call this a stalemate of sorts. Attendant are other notable stalemates: the inflation outlook; the Russian/Ukraine war; Fed interest rate policy; US debt limit discussions. A resolution will not be clear in the very short term, but if inflation continues to subside, we would argue that the next major equity market move will be higher. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA