No signal changes this week. Inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to dominate the headlines. The US economy is strong (rest of world, less so) but rising interest will prove a drag. Unlike past periods of heady economic growth, at present there is no sign of excess inventory on durable goods (housing and autos) but certain soft goods retailers (Target, WalMart) have indicated having the “wrong inventory” on hand. Given the labor shortage, it is unlikely that large scale layoffs in the US are in the cards. We may get the hoped for “soft landing” therefore.
Bob Bilkie, CFA