No one really knows how the current conflict in Ukraine is going to end. However, in the interim, it might be helpful to consider some of the possibilities.
The war is clearly going very badly for Ukraine’s civilians, as Russia appears to have embarked on a ruthless, scorched earth strategy.
Based on limited reports from the field, of unascertainable accuracy, it appears that initial Russian expectations of a quick, and largely unopposed campaign, are not working out.
It also seems to be clear that Ukrainian resistance is far more effective and courageous than expected.
Russia is probably not going to suddenly conclude that invading Ukraine was a bad idea and simply pack up and go home. However, regime change in Moscow could lead to a quick withdrawal of Russian forces in Ukraine.
So, what now? Ukrainians, both military and civilian, are demonstrating exceptional courage and a fierce determination to resist Russian aggression.
Generally, any resistance movement requires two key components, a brave cadre of local combatants, and external support with a serious commitment to providing food, water, medical supplies and war material. With those two key factors in place, it could be a long summer for Russia, with potentially no end in sight.
All comments and suggestions are welcome.
Walter J. Kirchberger, CFA