Necessity Is the Mother of Invention

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“Necessity is the mother of invention” is a proverb that means, roughly, the primary driving force for most new inventions is a need. Now, with the world in the throes of dealing with the health and economic impact of Covid-19, the need for solutions could not be higher. While it is essentially impossible to describe … Continued

Predictive Modelling

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  Predictive modelling uses statistics to predict outcomes.  It is important to recognize that models are only as good as the modeler, who is only as good as the available data.  Modelling is essentially an exercise in collecting and combining available information and, to some extent, estimates by the modeler.  Some, but not all, of … Continued

Black Swan Theory

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According to Wikipedia, a black swan event is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.  In other words, a black swan event is being blindsided, followed by finger pointing, based on 20/20 hindsight. Black … Continued

“The Boy Who Cried Wolf”

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“The Boy Who Cried Wolf” is one of Aesop’s Fables and concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking a wolf is attacking the town’s flock.  When a wolf actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep are … Continued

Busy Hands Are Happy Hands

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Busy hands are happy hands is an old cliché associated with the idea that staying busy can contribute to happiness.  Historically, it reflected the thought that doing physical work and keeping busy would give you a more positive outlook on life.  In today’s world, with many Americans substantially confined to their homes, keeping busy can … Continued

Alone And Lonely Are Not Synonyms

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Alone is a condition brought about by circumstances, and for the most part, is what it is.  With large numbers of Americans finding out that “Home Alone” is not just the name of a popular movie, alone is becoming increasingly common and not a matter of choice. Lonely is another matter.  Wikipedia defines loneliness as a … Continued

American Ingenuity On Display

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Maybe I should not be surprised at the speed and rate at which Americans have risen and mobilized to fight this war… but I am.  I am truly amazed.  If we saw it in a movie we would not believe it.  American spirit, ingenuity and business are now on display and it is nothing short … Continued