It is now clear that congressional budget compromises are an excuse to spend more on everyone’s wish list rather than to make hard decisions regarding appropriate priorities. Running up the deficit is not a recent phenomenon. Adding to the national debt has been the reality of both political parties for a long time, as no … Continued
The full quotation, attributed to Mike Tyson is, “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” While Mr. Tyson was obviously talking about boxing, the same concept is probably equally relevant to investing. A sudden and sharp correction in the stock market, can feel like kick in the stomach. Most investors start … Continued
We have previously discussed the importance of labor-force participation (see blog from 09 Jan 2018). The recently reported February jobs report was probably about as good as it gets. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 313,000, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, wages grew by a too modest 0.1% and, most important, the labor-force participation rate … Continued
Often, governments start out trying to be all things to all citizens. Unfortunately, governments have a history of falling short on initial promises for a variety of reasons including, political bickering and trying to do too much at the cost of often not doing some things well. One might think that providing its citizens with … Continued
According to Wikipedia, saber rattling originated in Chile in 1924, when a group of young military officers protested against the political class and postponement of social measures by rattling the scabbards of their sabers against the floor. The term is now applied to cover any indication of military aggressiveness. Saber rattling currently can include such … Continued
Uncertainty describes a situation without a straight forward description involving ambiguous and/or unknown information. Markets don’t like uncertainty. Markets tend to over react in the near term, as traders attempt to get ahead of any suggestion of a possible change in sentiment. Recently, markets reacted sharply to an announcement relating to the possibility of new … Continued
In September 1986, “The Economist” introduced the Big Mac Index, as a semi-humorous illustration of purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP provides a test of the extent to which market exchange rates result in goods costing the same in different countries. The objective was to attempt to make exchange-rate theory a bit more understandable. PPP can … Continued
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