The political class, as usual, tends to frame major legislative actions in terms of job creation.  That’s probably a good thing in many situations.  However, currently the U.S. is enjoying a period of near record unemployment, exceptional high job postings and employers aggressively seeking to hire new employees and retain current staff.  In other words, … Continued

Week of August 22, 2022 No changes in our Signals this week. Meme stock speculators, cryptocurrency advocates, and supersonic airplane manufacturers alike are learning that it is quite costly to bet on a vessel that has no “engine”. Despite market expectations of a dovish Fed, Chairman Jerome Powell will not want to waffle and let … Continued

Week of August 15, 2022 Russia has lost. China has lost. Iran has lost. These are pre-ordained. It is impossible for planned economies and autocracies to outcompete capitalistic democracies. Threats from these regimes slow capitalism‘s progress, but does not stop it. No changes to any of our signals this week. Bob Bilkie, CFA.

Wikipedia defines productivity as the efficiency of production of goods and services.  Productivity is not everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.  A nation’s ability to improve its standard of living, over time, depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker.  We have previously commented on the increasing … Continued

Week of August 8, 2022 A status quo week, last week. No changes to Signals. Senators Schumer and Manchin negotiated a bill that left both sides of the political spectrum scratching their heads. Increased taxes and more spending. Less than Build Back Better, but more than Republicans wanted. Will there be tangible benefits or was … Continued

In supply chain management and transportation planning, the last mile is the last leg of the journey comprising the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a final destination.  As a practical matter, it is often a factor at both ends, as goods and people transit from diverse locations to a central terminal, … Continued

Week of August 1, 2022 Commentary: Regarding the economy, “If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it’s a duck!” Unlike past recessions, the labor shortage in the US suggests few layoffs and hence, this could be a “Daffy Duck” recession ‐ few economic consequences for consumers. The Fed raised interest rates … Continued

Historically, politics has often been considered to be the art of the possible, a matter of pragmatism instead of idealism.  It would seem that currently, politics has turned into a blood sport, with the goal of destroying the opposition, rather than finding a middle ground that both sides can live with. This may, in part, … Continued

“I’m so miserable without you, it’s almost like you’re here!” crooned country singer Billy Ray Cyrus a few years back. Investors are feeling the same about the Fed these days as that august body continues to remove monetary stimulus from the capital markets in order to contain inflation. At the margin, we would still be … Continued

The summer doldrums are upon us and while equity markets staged a rebound last week, it would appear that no near term catalyst exists for anything sustained, in either direction. Second quarter earnings reporting season also began last week with banks reporting mixed results. The inflation “toddler” is being closed watched by disciplinarian “Father” Fed … Continued

Perhaps the most important event in the movement of international cargo in the last 100 years, was the circa 1970, almost universal adoption of shipping containers.  Prior to the general use of containers, cargos typically consisted of boxes and crates that had to be loaded into large nets and hoisted into and out of a … Continued

No signal changes this week but quite a lot of “noise.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines and it appears that NATO will be content to “bleed” Russia doing “whatever it takes” to keep Russia from prevailing. The New York Times recently released its first poll of the coming election season and … Continued