Week of July 6, 2026
Brent crude has returned to the price level it traded at a year ago, before the conflict with Iran began. Capital markets appear to be signaling expectations for a favorable resolution to the conflict—though likely not one that benefits Iran. Meanwhile, an unexpected shift in domestic politics, highlighted by the election of several democratic socialists, is prompting a reassessment of the political landscape. While it is unlikely that democratic socialism will gain broad support across most of the United States, in fact, the development could strengthen Republican control of the House and Senate, advancing a more right-leaning policy agenda. Our Signals remain unchanged.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
