Week of March 30, 2026
While many regional actors quietly support weakening Iran’s military capabilities, an active conflict raises near-term instability across the Middle East. Iran is likely to continue to respond more virulently through proxy groups and asymmetric attacks, increasing the risk of broader regional disruption and energy market volatility. Although the long-term balance of power likely improves as Iran is degraded, the immediate environment becomes more unpredictable. For that reason, we have shifted our Middle East Signal from green to yellow.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
