Week of March 9, 2026
The assassination of Ali Khamenei has created a power vacuum inside Iran’s ruling structure and intensified competition among clerical authorities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and opposition forces. Three outcomes appear plausible. Fragmentation: Central authority weakens and Iran splinters into competing factions, disrupting energy flows. Managed disorder: Internal factions compete, but the state holds together. Energy flows. Strategic realignment: Pragmatic regime elements align with opposition leadership- potentially including Reza Pahlavi—to normalize relations and reopen Iran’s energy sector to global capital. Our Signals are unchanged, but we have isolated Iran for intense monitoring.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
