Week of January 19, 2026
President Trump continues to weigh how far the United States is willing to go to intervene in Iran. The Ayatollah’s partial retreat from the use of force against protestors has, for now, helped preserve the regime. As Niall Ferguson notes in The Free Press, meaningful regime change would likely require a significant portion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to see greater profit in a post-Islamic order than under the status quo—conditions that do not yet appear to exist. Whether President Trump will follow through on his promise to support Iranian protestors, or heed military advisors cautioning that regime change in Iran would be far more complex than in Venezuela, remains uncertain. Our Signals remain unchanged.
Michael Mullenax, CFP® and Bob Bilkie, CFA
