Week of January 12, 2026
Deniable plausibility or “shock and awe”? That is the dilemma facing the Trump administration as it weighs how to support the Iranian people amid ongoing protests against their government. Iran has warned that U.S. intervention would prompt retaliation, including disrupting shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and targeting American bases in the region. The coming days will be telling for the prospects of long-term peace and prosperity in the Middle East. Our Signals remain unchanged.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
